$USD

Please go back and read this post from Tuesday when you have a minute 

In a nutshell, accumulation in the dollar was underway as of that post. Take a look at the dollar today via UUP

The FOMC's last policy statement should have sent the dollar lower. Again, the April 28th date comes up in the analysis posted above.

Granted, there's been some bad news out of Europe this morning, specifically German manufacturing, the ECB and Bank of England kept rates unchanged as there are signs of a fading recovery in England and for the ECB, Germany. Also the True Finns have spoken out saying that Greece WILL default, we already know that they have veto power over the Portuguese bailout so there's certainly pressure on the Euro and that accounts for half of the Dollar index, but the signs of something stirring in the dollar went back to last Thursday-something shifted very quickly last week.

Commodities

I have a feeling that something very nasty is about to break news. The action in the commodity arena (which I chose to highlight because of the extreme leverage available there) is the antithesis of a short squeeze, it looks very much like unwinding of speculative money. What does that mean? In a nutshell, the Fed has kept rates between zero and .25% for an extended period of time. Ever wonder why banks earnings are pretty much garbage if you take away their trading desk operations? They take money which for all intents and purposes, is nearly free and invest it in speculative assets, some have been in stocks like PCLN, but the bulk has gone into the commodities complex. It looks like they are desperately trying to unwind that risk exposure quickly before "an event" occurs. An event could be the hiking of interest rates, at the leverage they're using a 25 basis point hike could be disastrous. It could also be a reserve ratio requirement being lifted, I don't know what the event is, but action like we see below is telling us something is coming. I keep falling back on the April 28th date that I showed you yesterday.

SLV is interesting in that not only is the CME hiking margins, but brokerages are putting in some of the fiercest hikes. I can only assume they're going after silver so aggressively because of its recent parabolic activity-the flavor of the month.

Interestingly, TLT is creeping up very quietly. For the price pattern involved, volume should be huge, it's not. It's almost as if there's a migration into TLT that's trying to go unnoticed, that kind of action or non-action is precisely what you'd expect to see in a quiet rotation. It' odd behavior, it's not typical at all and should be kept on your watchlist.

 Global Commodity Index

 GLD

 SLV

USO

Initial Claims Historic Miss

This Initial Claims miss is the second biggest in history vs. consensus. Tomorrow's NFP can't look good.

The average of the averages

Below is the zone in which we saw positive divergences yesterday

 DIA the white square is about the area where positive divergences occurred. If there was any accumulation this morning, you can average that down a little and you can see roughly where the market would need to be to get to break even, although this is quite a rough depiction as we have no way of knowing how many shares were picked up where.


 QQQ


SPY

 NYSE specialist (unlike the NASDAQ) actually choose the opening indication and in some cases, when to open the market, it's not always at 9:30. An old day trader trick was to buy the a.m. lows in the first 5-10 minutes as the specialist would usually open the market close to what they thought the lows would be and then move it up from there to fade the open. It's a bit more complicated with ETFs of the averages themselves, but ETFs do at times diverge a bit in price from the underlying asset, this is one reason I prefer to track the ETFs rather then the average, volume and demand is different and you often get better, faster signals about intentions with ETFs.

We'll see if that old day trader secret still works shortly.

SLV

SLV at the Trend Channel stop that has held the SLV run up since early 2010.

This is our final line in the sand on the close, should this break, the 1.5 year character of SLV changes with it. This is also one of the last areas for SLV to stage a bounce before a major change in character comes down the road.

From ZH on the margin hike (you have to wonder which commodity will be next):

"Nobody could have foreseen this. Nobody. At this point there is nothing left to comment on what is a concerted action to "mitigate" any and all risk in the commodity market but could as well be classified as executive order 6102.5. While we were joking before that soon one will have to post more cash than an silver contract is worth, we are now forced to reevaluate this sarcasm."

This is getting Conspiratorial

If you didn't already here, CME, for the 4th time (this is happening about every other day now as this is the 4th in 8 days) has not only hiked silver margins again, but this time by and whopping 17% (12, 10 and 9 percent previously).

I know someone at CME that I'm going to try to get in touch with. This is really sounding like orders are coming down from a higher up place as each hike is evaluated.

NFP Doesn't Stand A Chance

Initial claims this morning was beyond bad. Previously IA came in at an upwardly revised 431k, estimates were for a drop to 410k, the number came in at 474k. This is a wild miss and does not bode well for Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.

Speculative plays for a Quick Oil Bounce

I just looked at these for another member and they seem to show accumulation, but they are low priced speculative plays, that's part of the reason I chose them, because they can move quick in a day or two.

Just remember, these shouldn't be treated as normal positions, they are VERY speculative.

Here are the candidates: GPR, TIV and DPTR. I also wouldn't hold these too long, if they were to produce double digit gains, I'd probably book them pretty quick.

Market Update continued.

 Here's a 1 min negative divergence, I don't think this is signaling the end of a bounce at all, but rather lowering price to accumulate more.

 The 10 min is still positive.

This may take the shape of a double bottom, I wouldn't think it would be too much bigger with the NFP out on Friday, which I doubt will be good so today and tomorrow are the perfect time to run the market up a bit.

USO Update

 USO 5 min

USO 10 min.

It looks like SO is setting up for a bounce, it's still lateral largely so this divergence could continue to build, the length of the divergence ultimately will tell us more about what to expect for the bounce, but as of now, consider USO to be prepping for a move higher.