Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Market Update

There's some short term hart movement now...
 DIA 1 min approaching a leading position.
 The IWM has looked the best 3C-wise all morning, I'd like to see this chart lead.

 The 2 min chart is leading

 QQQ 1 min is starting to lead.

The SPY is not leading, but there has been improvement on a relative basis at the second white arrow.

The Swiss Franc

What happens here will be an early tell...

Market Update

We remain in a tight range over the last nearly 2 hours, however, while there hasn't been much movement on the short time frame end, there has been some movement on the longer 15 min charts.
 SPY range

 DIA improvement

 IWM improvement

 QQQ improvement

And the SPY holding about steady.

I'll update as soon as there's some short term end movement.

The Senate Just Got the 60 Votes

The changes in the 1 min I mentioned

These aren't big changes yet, the reason I mention them is they are the first changes.
 DIA

 IWM, by far the strongest

 QQQ

 SPY

 The TICK close to breaking the down channel

3C on the TICK chart.

Fishing in Darkpools?

Right now, the IWM, QQQ, SPY and DIA with the DIA and IWM being the strongest, are all starting to show signs of 1 min positive divergences.

I mentioned a shakeout being likely in the last update, however....
Looking at these small probing actions in the SPY makes me wonder if there's an algo or two fishing for stops in the Dark Pools? The Dark Pools are called that because their trades, bids/offers aren't on the books, they only show up on the daily consolidated tape. The only way to uncover what might be called an "Iceberg" such as a large order to buy or sell, is through probing actions or what is known as "pinging".

There are quite a few dark pools and it's something the SEC really ought to address.

Trade Idea RVBD (long)

This s a stock I've been watching with a member, it's a potential takeover candidate and otherwise in pretty good position as a low risk trade.

 Usually after a first break of support we see a significant bounce/rally and RVBD has managed to fend off follow through selling.

 The daily chart is positive, which is no small thing.

 and the 60 min

 the 15 min

And the 10 min.

I think the risk is low enough here and the indications are strong enough to warrant a close look at RVBD as a potential long trade.

Looks like SPY ...

Is headed for a test of yesterday's lows, perhaps a shakeout, we'll have to see what the signals are at that point, as usual, most reversals start with a solid head fake.

Opening indications

 Both the DIA above and the IWM below had strong opening indications on the 1 min chart. The 5 min charts in all of the averages remain in leading positive divergences.

UUP/$USD Update

Since we have some movement in UUP, I think it's time for an update.

You may recall UUP was under some heavy accumulation last week.

 UUP 1 min shows us a bad opening for UUP on the 1 min chart, it opened negatively divergent and has already seen some downside this a.m.

 The 5 min chart shows this to be a more serious problem then just a negative divergence on a 1 min chart.

 As does the 10 min chart

And the 15 min, you can see last week's accumulation as well.

 The 30 min chart suggests UUP will see continued accumulation for what will probably be a large move up in the $USD

 The 60 min chart suggests the same.

Remember that UUP has an inverse relationship with the market and most asset classes, it would make sense to see some strength in the market while UUP returns to the lower range to go through a second round of accumulation. A failure in the market, could then send UUP higher on what would likely be a decent move up over a period of weeks.