SPY hits potential head fake

FXA

As many of you know, we've used the Australian dollar as a divergence indicator or a leading indicator for the market. So far every time we've used it, it has worked. While the SPY is near new lows here, the FXA is near new highs. An interesting chart.

Market Update

 DIA 1 min leading

 DIA 30 min chart now leading!

 IWM 1 min leading

 IWM 2 min leading

 IWM 15 min leading and look at the relative points of divergence.

 IWM 30 min chart now leading -also note relative points of divergence.

 QQQ 1 min leading

 QQQ 5 mn also leading

QQQ 15 min leading and note relative points of divergence.

 QQQ 30 min chart now leading-also note relative points of divergence.

 SPY, RSI positive divergence on a possible inverse H&S base...

 SPY 1 min leading

15 min also leading and note relative points of divergence

This is a strange market, the VIX is behaving strangely, however, these are some very strong readings, rarely seen.

HBI Follow Up

HBI was a short trade idea from July 22 @ $31.12

 Here's the initial trade,  still like HBI and it's staying on my short list.

However, just in case, I would consider a trailing stop-a 50 bar average on a 60 min chart will keep this trade at a profit and not let it become a loser.

Head Fake?

We know from experience on daily and intraday timeframes that the head fake is the most common Wall Street game we see before a reversal, we see it probably something like 85% of the time.

So is today another head fake?

 Head fake on the DJ-20

 On the Q's

 The SP-500

And XLF just to name a few.

With the exception of the DJ-20, usually a break of support would send these averages plummeting, n fact if I were trading the way I did 5 years ago, I'd be short everything and have expected the Dow to have given up 300 points today. Price s the final judge, but more often then not, price indications can be very devious.

Franc Follow Up

The Franc is one of the currencies, like the Australian dollar that can often be a leading indication for the market (inversely).

The FXF hasn't added anymore gains to its parabolic, knee jerk-like rally and just broke some initial support on increasing volume.

SRS long Follow Up

SRS is a long trade from 7/27 The trade is up nearly 10%

 This remains one of my favorite trades and I think it has a lot of upside. For the swing traders, I would consider a trailing stop in this area. If you are long term, then I'd probably just leave it alone.

a 50-bar m.a. on a 30 mn chart would be my choice, although it could be widened out to a 60 min scale.

SRS isn't showing any dire signs, but there's usually a pullback after a break out from the base we were looking at.

MRX Short Trade Follow Up

MRX was a short from 7/15  @ $38.54

 Here's the entry @ nearly  a 7% gain.

I still like the trade a lot, but I would consider a trailing stop, maybe a 50-bar average on a 60 min chart.

Market Update

There's some short term hart movement now...

 DIA 1 min approaching a leading position.

 The IWM has looked the best 3C-wise all morning, I'd like to see this chart lead.

 The 2 min chart is leading

 QQQ 1 min is starting to lead.

The SPY is not leading, but there has been improvement on a relative basis at the second white arrow.

The Swiss Franc

What happens here will be an early tell...