:)

That's a happy face...

I just received about 10 emails from members who made a bundle today, most have taken some profits, some will look at add on any intraday bounce, some will hold through the weekend. Some used Inverse ETFs, some made thousands using options, some are just short stock, but I'm VERY HAPPY to hear it and I love that everyone is applying analysis to their trading style and trading this market nimbly.

I have a job I love, working with the market all day and trying to help people, I couldn't ask for anything more, except maybe a hedge fund, then I could help a lot more people-I mean charities!

Keep sending me your success stories, it makes my day.

Market Update

Nothing moves straight up or down, we may see a small bounce here or a consolidation from these 1 min charts.

 DIA 1 min

 QQQ 1 min

SPY 1 min

Treasury Safe Haven Trade

 TLT (20+ year Treasury Bond) has lifted off-

 1 mn in confirmation

 5 min in confrmation

 !0 min had a leading positive divergence two days ago, it's moving toward confirmation, but remember these longer term charts are slower to catch up to a fast pace move in prices.

TLT 15 min with a leading positive divergence yesterday, moving toward confirmation

Market Update

As I said in the last post, I always look for intraday volatility around important support.

 DIA 5 min a possible relative divergence or the 5 min chart just has not kept up with the speed of the drop.

 The 10 min DIA is hitting new leading negative lows.

 The 15 min is a bit negative, but pretty much in line.

 Here's the same situation on the 5 min QQQ chart as mentioned on the DIA chart above, except this is within a leading negative divergence setting new lows.

 The 10 min chart may be showing a relative positive divergence, or again it may not be able to keep up with the speed of the drop, especially as it is longer term.

 QQQ 15 min in new lows on a leading negative divergence.

 SPY 5 min is in line

And the 10 min is hitting new leading negative lows.

I personally may start to take some of the substantial profits on my shorts, not because I'm worried about a big reversal, but this is how I usually operate, pretty much the same way as Wall Street. However if I do, it would be on the order of maybe 25% of the position. If there was intraday strength and 3C was negative, I may even add that 25% back.

Some Support Levels

However, most if not all were broken before I could finish capturing them. I always look for volatility around support levels on an intraday basis.

 DIA

 QQQ

SPY

SMH

I received an emal about unusual strength in SMH, pretty much before I could respond, it headed lower.

 Tech in white is the strongest relative strength sector today, SMH is semi-conductors.

 There was a 1 min positive off the open, as it headed higher you can see 3C went negative and it has started to reverse.

The longer term 10 min chart is in a leading negative position.

Remember these words, "Bull Trap"

From yesterday,


"Maybe setting up a nice bull trap?"

 You hear me throw around the words, "Head Fake", "False Breakout" and occasionally "Bull or Bear Trap". There are so prevalent that sometimes we don't see them or understand the importance of what we are seeing. With the 3C charts so negative, t gives subtle price action new meaning. With this triangle in place, what would need to happen to get bulls to buy, to inspire confidence? A break above the triangle. While it may seem like random price movement, with 3C being negative through the entire event, it was clearly a set up, a head fake or a bull trap.

Everyone who went long the last two days the market is now at a loss=Bull trap. There's a reason for this, first the buying demand allows Wall Street to short in to strength and more importantly, in to demand. Remember how quickly long charts like the 10-15 min charts went leading negative-IN ONE DAY! That indicates the buying was being used by Wall Street to distribute and get short. The second reason, if you want the market to fall to make your short position worth more, there's nothing like adding supply to the market and those who are at a loss, will start selling and add supply, pushing prices down even more. This is the way of Wall Street.

More Bad News Then You Can Shake A Stick At

And today is not even an economic day of any real importance here in the US with only Wholesale Trade at 10:00 a.m.

I'm no economist and luckily I don't have to be. As I've been saying the last 2 days, the 3C charts are in such bad shape, there's almost no chance that this market doesn't fall.

While 15 minutes of alerts went off this morning, I took a look around at some of the news and as usual, Europe ALWAYS makes its rounds back into the spotlight of disaster within a few days. 3C has been warning us of this and probably much more that hasn't come to light yet.

Here's a quick round up of some of the disasters going on across the Lake Atlantic in Europe.

First, the ECB's interest rate decision this week didn't help and the Euro has paid for it, trading below the psychologically important $1.40 level.

The German Constitutional Court seems to have thrown a wet blanket on the spark of Euro Bonds.

Maybe most importantly, it's DoD day in Greece-Do or Die. Today is final day for greek bond Today s the last day for Greek bond holder to swap out for the debt that is supposed to be Greek bailout 2.0.

Greece has said t wanted a 90% conversion, but most think that was a bluff and somewhere around 70-75% would work. The problem? It is not happening!

Per Reuters, "investors in Greek government debt worldwide will tell regulators on Friday whether and how they will participate in a bond swap aimed at giving Athens more time to emerge from a debt crisis, with officials expecting a take-up of about 70 percent. Greece had threatened to cancel the deal unless it got 90 percent participation, which would see 135 billion euros ($189 billion) of its outstanding bonds maturing by 2020 swapped or rolled over in a global transaction it wants to conclude next month. Even with a participation rate of 70 percent or better, which is my current view, the PSI will proceed," said an Athens-based banker close to the procedures. German investors share that view, a big German bondholder told Reuters. A 75 percent takeup rate would be a success and enough to convince the political side of the deal , 90 percent was unrealistic from the beginning, he said. The threat to walk away may merely be a tactic by Athens to get most of bondholders on board, bankers said.

For more on this story, here's the link to Reuters.

Some say the Credit markets drive the Stock market, some say that wasn't the case during the Lehman Crisis. Many believe the same is true of Greece and Europe more broadly. Remember, one of my possible downside targets has been a new low.

The way the credit markets are working right now, the bond market is expecting a default or massive write-offs for Greek debt. Thus the Stock Market may very well be lagging in discounting this, although 3C underlying action has suggested Wall Street is taking it seriously, but seriously enough?

A Reuters journalist is circulating an email that has ramifications that are HUGE and IMMEDIATE.

"From colleague: trader friend just hit me with the following: There is “Chatter” in the market of a Greek Default this Weekend"

This is the reason European financials acted so badly last night.

Luckily, I don't have to be an economist, the charts have been warning for several days as you have seen.

Email List Reminder

The new email system is up and running with no problems. Many of you have sent the email address you would like to receive the updates at, but still many more I haven't heard from yet.

Just send me an email with your site email address log on and if you want the emails to go to a different account, that email account as well.

Thanks again.

Obama Speech?

The question the markets may answer Friday was whether Obama's speech before a joint session of Congress amounted to anything more then Bernanke jawboning?

Ambitious? Perhaps

Realistic? Doubtful

My take away from this semi-primetime speech was, "Really?"

Th speech and the proposals didn't strike me as something that was realistic enough or big enough to warrant a semi-prmetime joint session of Congress.

I personally don't think it will change much at all as far as the market is concerned, especially given the lack of details, which we'll have to wait a week or more to hear about. Perhaps the speech would have been better when they figured out the hows and ifs.

Furthermore as I noted Wednesday night, the proposal was DOA with Republicans before it even hit the "A" part, "arrival". Which leads me to wonder if this was more political, campaign posturing then anything else or rather then anything REALLY SERIOUS.

Had there been a bi-partisan agreement and a plan with details to give the bones some meat, maybe it would have been a market moving event, as it stands, I just don't see it.