AMZN Charts

 This is a long trend and a strong trend and a company with one of the most well respected CEOs out there. I can't say how much can be retraced to the downside, that remains to be seen, but I can say that a trend this big doesn't just flop over without a lot of subterfuge and volatility which are often one and the same.

 Even the last pullback had a fairly volatile area. The volatility is even greater in this area so I wouldn't be surprised to see more of it given everything we know (all the charts).

 I'm still very much a fan of the equity short as seen here with a 15 min leading negative divergence with increased downside momentum

 A nasty 30 min right in the area where AMZN is making new highs.

 And the bigger picture 2 hour chart with a very bad leading negative divergence, of course many issues look like this.

However...

 The 2 min chart is leading positive, remember what I said about flat ranges and seeing accumulation or distribution depending on the preceding trend, this is a good example of the opposite of what I showed you earlier.

 The positive is moving out to the 5 min chart as well, as you can see it's not big enough to concern me over the equity short, but big enough that I think an options play may be a quick , profitable move.

And even on the 10 min we have  leading positive divergence, so this makes sense to me, both trades even though that may sound counter-intuitive, they are in different timeframes and will move at different rates.

AMZN Feb 13th $265 Call

Yes, you heard it correctly, even though I'm bearish and like the idea of filling out an AMZN equity short in the area, this is one of the other stocks that has an interesting short term chart. I'll show you the charts next, obviously it also provides a hedge to the equity short position.

BIDU Update

The BIDU call position (Feb 13th $105) is still open, I don't care for the shorter charts, but this is one of the very few stocks that has an interesting intermediate chart, I will probably leave it open because of that and as a hedge of sorts, if it weren't useful as a hedge, I think I'd close it.

This is a relative positive divergence on a 15 min chart, it can also be seen on a 10, 30 and 60 minute, although in many of those cases the positive divergence is within a larger leading negative, but the first move would still be to the upside.

This is exactly the kind of position I don't like to be put in with options, but unless something really slides badly to change my mind, I'll keep it as an open position for now.

Futures

ES's 1 min chart is just starting to come unglued from the intraday trend, the 5 min is where the trouble is.

NASDAQ futures have seen distribution in a very small range near the highs today and are turning very ugly now.

NASDAQ intraday futures.

Between the numerous charts, the move in the VIX around the Bollinger Band pinch on multi-month, maybe even year-differential in volatility, credit, etc and my gut feeling that when this comes, it comes quick, has me a little on the edge of my seat.

Market Update

In light of Dow 14k, I wanted to see if that had prompted any kind of willingness to take risk by the smartest of smart money, the credit markets.

Here's what I found, it's a bit disturbing, but not unexpected and for you FX traders, the EUR/USD short is starting to look more and more attractive.

 No risk in the most liquid of credit ETFs representing High Yield Corporate...

 The disturbing part is the trend, it's also the part we had been waiting for, but even I didn't expect such a clear message from credit traders of 100% RISK OFF unlike equities which are on the other spectrum of the smartest of smart money.

 High Yield which has been strange in a sideways chop was clear about today's move vs the SPX.

 Junk Credit wasn't inspired to take any risk (vs the SPX)

 The trend here is even worse than HYG.

And the unshakeable Euro, for once not leading the market...

Dow 14k

Not much volume as the Dow passes $14k, I told you CNBC would be the buyer!

In fact no perceptible increase in volume at all.

For most market averages we have to use the ETFs with intraday 3C, which is fine because the EFTs can often show demand or fear through the strength of buying in the ETF before the average ever moves, so it works out, however the Dow is one of the averages we can see intraday with 3C.

Here's a look...

 Dow-30 1 min intraday

 Closer view of the 1 min intraday

 2 min

 5 min

 15 min

60 min

VIX

If there was any kind of liquidity in the VXX options, I'd be taking the Calls (long) trade right now.

You may or may not remember this post, but when things go exactly as you expect, it's a pretty good confirmation.

Here's the VIX right now.

Note the buy signal and the Bollinger Band huge volatility squeeze.

In this post "Volatility" from this Wednesday, Jan. 30th, I showed virtually the exact same chart and below it wrote...

"As the BB's pinch, it makes a good area for a head fake move below the band, but at this time I'm more interested in the highest probability trade which is a move toward trend 2 (down) so any short term strength will be used for tactical purposes."

We aren't below the band, but we are below the average and this is the move I was talking about, it's part of the volatility. Unfortunately I din't see a lot of liquidity in the VXX Feb. options, so I'll have to think on this, but I do like the idea of, "Long volatility here"

I like FAZ (short Financials ) here as well

I guess it's no surprise that when one turns, they all start to turn.

I like the idea that I can use what ever is added here as a trading position if need be, but I have a feeling it will be longer than just a short term trade.

SQQQ long not bad either

Now that the Q's have filled the gap, I am really not opposed to adding/starting a long SQQQ (3x leveraged short NASDAQ 100) position either.

Going to fill out IWM short-SRTY Here

I'm going to fill out the equity short (long SRTY 3x leveraged bear ETF for the Russell 2000), I see the filling out worth at least a trade and most likely even better (longer term position).