UVXY P/L

This was an equity long, meant to be around for a decent swing, maybe a bit more.

I see no reason to keep it open here.

The gain was +18.9%

I'd still like to pick up another equity long in UVXY, but not here or now.

Closing Longer Term Equity UVXY position at Gain

HYG is Gathering Momentum...

At the same time, a barely lower low (this is why I said don't put the stop in an obvious place), tagged a bunch more short orders.

Considering Taking Gains In AMZN Calls, but...

It's so darn close to the area we were looking for AMZN to move to for a short position add- to, at least >$275.

I think I'll give it a bit more time

If You Want to Be Long...

This is of course for a shorter term, speculative trade, NOW is probably a pretty darn good and likely last chance. You can enter a SPY or leveraged ETF and use the intraday lows as a stop-not right below them like everyone else, but somewhere not so obvious.

That's a pretty low risk trade. Remember the difference between amateurs and pros is that amateurs try once and walk away from a good position, pros take a small loss and will try again for a good position, some time again and again until they get the entry they want, the key is keeping losses small.

I'd Say There's a Good Chance That's the Set-up

One of our main concepts from large Primary trend double bottoms or even tops to smaller ones, they don't act like they use to (fall short of testing support), now they always blow through support on a head fake stop run, that's 1 concept which is tied to, "There are no significant reversals without a head fake move preceding them, this would count as significant.

I don't know how far the short limit orders go down in the bid ask stack, but looking at this, this could be as simple as the set up needs to be.

Yesterday we established a bigger base was being carved out, but I don't think for accumulation of longs, I think to draw in more retail shorts, you need to break support to do that...

 The bigger view, there would be 2 main head fakes, one under the triangle then the base and the one under the base-just a moment ago.

A closer look, this is just moments ago, support is broken, but with sentiment what it is, those aren't stops, those are retail shorts coming in. It doesn't matter either way if smart money "wants to buy", both are sales, they can accumulate either in size.

Watch this for an upside reversal, if momentum builds, you know that's our bear trap

HYG, TLT, VXX charts & Sentiment Extreme

All 3 have been, at least since yesterday, in a good spot for a SPY Arb set up. Although it's early to be relying too much on a.m. trade, all 3 are being set up for a positive SPY Arb move (HYG up, TLT and VXX down).

 HYG 1 min on the open =positive

HYG 3 min positive

And the HYG set up continuing from yesterday on the 5 min is positive.

TLT 1 min on the open is negative

TLT 2 min negative

The 5 min has been being set up as negative

VXX 1 min on the open is negative

3 min is negative.

I'd say this go around resistance is at SPY $165.50. I'm starting to think my original assumption was correct, smart money doesn't need a base to accumulate more, they have and have held a large enough position since this time last week, but what they do need is a big enough retail short squeeze, obviously the longer retail stays bearish, the bigger the squeeze which is the propellant to get us over the triangle.

Retail Sentiment is still negative with this tidbit added....


"Bearish Sentiment on the $SPY Stream has hit new highs for 3 days in a row: Bulls 27% vs Bears 73%" - These were the same people tweeting SPX 1700 + last week.

All 3 Levers are being Squeezed

All 3 are being squeezed toward positive SPY Arb.

Futures

Here are a few charts, the $USD looks especially resilient after a quick drop on the release of the ADP employment report (I get their data emailed to me and don't even open it, their series is so noisy and so far off the mark, but that may be because they are right and the BLS is fudging the numbers).

Really the USD/JPY is the only real risk driver so it's really the only asset that REALLY matters right now.

 $USD stayed in a strong , long overnight positive divergence even when it dipped hard on the 8:15 ADP report release.

The Yen after having made a new low for the series down from $103 looks a little tired here, that could be useful for the market.

I'm not interested in PMs yet and I think oil is very close to a big slide.

Second Verse, Same as the First-USD/JPY & Volatility

I'm not going to get in to the whole Abe-enomics thing right now, but Abe did speak last night, the market now thinks his Super QE and growth forecasts are a joke, the USD/JPY broke under $99,50 and the Nikkei saw an intraday high to low swing of 700 points or an intraday swing of 5%


There was a lot of not so goof European economic data, their second GDP read is still in recession, Services PMI came in broadly worse and Eurozone retail sales looked horrible.

We do have some bad US news, the Worst month for Mortgage applications and the ADP (noisy series any way) has an 8 month low in labor so maybe the market will take this as Bernie can't back out so soon.

We'll see shortly.

I don't see anything exciting in the futures at this moment except the R2K futures look a bit better and the $USD looks a bit more positive, but as soon as we open the fireworks usually go off.