GDX/NUGT/DUST charts

GDX is gold miners , NUGT is 3x long gold miners and DUST is 3x short gold miners so GDX and NUGT should look similar in signals and DUST the opposite.

 GDX 5 min

NUGT 60 min with the head fake move or stop run, note volume at the break under support.

Closer view of NUGT 5 min

DUST 60 min with the opposite, what would be considered a head fake / false breakout

DUST 5 min with a sharp leading negative.

Gold Signals

Futures are going wild, especially considering the way Gold Futures opened last night and the nearly morning ritual of a smack down.

First the recent Market/Gold correlation, it is inverse so these signals make sense (positive gold, negative market).

 SPY daily in green, GLD in red, note the inverse relationship, this is not the norm under a QE regime.

 The 60 min chart is more specific.

Gold futures 4 hours, when we first entered I thought there would either be a shallow pullback that was almost done or a deeper one, but the deeper one would allow for a stronger base and stronger uptrend in gold, you can see the deeper move was made with a head fake stop run just below the yellow trend line.

This is the 60 min chart, strong and impressive, but today's specific moves are more so.

 Look at how fast this 30 min gold futs. chart moves (3c).

And the 15 min chart.

As for GLD

 The 60 min chart is very easy to follow from negative and price movement to positive and expected price movement, pay attention to the difference in size of the two divergences.

The 15 min chart with a VERY sharp 1-day move up

Also Getting Very Strong Negative Divergences for the Averages (SPY, IWM, QQQ*)

This is why I kept SPXU, SRTY, FAZ, TECS, etc, the 2-3x short ETFs, we are seeing very strong signals very quickly develop. I'm pretty much set, but I do like the above .

There seems to be an inverse market/gold relationship as well.

Adding a smaller amount to GLD Dec. $126 calls

Again, stunning signals (positive)

Adding to GDX December $25 Calls

I initially opened a half position in GDX and half in GLD as a way to not have too much exposure, but exposure to both groups.

GDX is down significantly as is GLD, I decided to add to GDX and bring it close to a full position itself at these prices, I'll try to get charts up, something is going on with both assets in my opinion and quickly.

GLD, GDX and NUGT all looking impressive.

I want to get the note out in case you are interested or for management, they are seeing very fast, very positive divergences, really impressive.

I'm still holding calls in both. I may increase the GDX calls, but I also like NUGT long a lot as well.

Trade Idea / Management: MCP

I've been in MCP with many of you (long), it's down about -2.5% which is fine, it's the process it has been undergoing and it looks better and better with each passing day. Liking MCP (long) the way I do, I'd be VERY uncomfortable if I didn't have a position in place already.

 MCP 60 min

30 min

Closer to home, 3 min.

There are numerous timeframes in between that look just as good, it's the short term timeframes aligning that make MCP look like it's very close to making a strong move up.

ES Futures

While I suspect they will hold the NASDAQ Composite at the $4002 level (as I said, it was a fraction away, it took less than a 0.25% move to do what all the other averages have done) on the close, I don't think today being the T+3 last day trade for November settlement is coincidental either... ES is telling a different story. I think this also is important to other ideas like VXX / UVXY long.

 The NDX Comp daily with a long and tight range, this really seems to have been quite a struggle just to get to $4k which was never far away for 5 TRADING WEEKS!

The flow of funds in Mutuals may also have had something to do with timing.

Today's candlestick for the NDX Comp is also not a very impressive one, actually a bearish reversal "Hanging Man".

 I don't think you can dismiss last week's post of a 5 min positive in index futures and the prediction of the Yen smack down as they needed a little more help, that 5 min signal worked exactly as the post said it would. Now we have a clear 5 min negative starting Friday.

Moreover, the 15 min has a sharp move and these longer timeframes rarely move this fast.

Trade Idea: Reiterating UVXY / VXX Long

These can be tough to trade long, but every once in a while you get some really amazing signals, these are the ones I often say, "I don't ignore" and I didn't Friday, the UVXY long is only down 0.59% for a highly volatile, 2x leveraged position.

I also took out VXX calls, Dec. $45.

Here's one more look because I would add or start positions in these here so I want to reiterate the idea. The Bollinger Band Squeeze in spot VIX just makes these more compelling.

 VIX futures 15 min with a strong signal after what appeared to be a pullback.

Intraday VIX futures at a new leading positive high on the day.

UVXY, I suspected this morning may have been a stop-run/head fake, the volume at the break below support gives me grater confidence in that assessment.

 The 15 min chart from confirmation to a clear transition to a poisitive signal.

 VXX 15 min showing the same

VXX 3 min intraday, the rounding area has increasing volume or supply and this is what is needed for these positions to be accumulated, it's one of the reasons head fake move like today's apparent break under support exist.

USO Update

A lot of you have been following the USO/Oil Set up and it has taken some time, but I think it's going to be well worth it. Last night oil futures opened down, when you see the charts it will be pretty obvious as to why if you don't already have an idea.

 This is the large view of the set up, I think USO can and probably will see a counter trend bounce back in to the channel.

It's interesting how closely this 10-day average has tracked USO, only 3 times was it off on the trend with price closing above early in the break when volatility is high, through the trend though  the 10-day held the entire trend as a stop, it was recently stopped out at the range and white arrow.

 All of the typical momentum indicators (using non-standard settings) are positively divergent at this range, which is most often associated with accumulation/distribution making it ironic that most traders view these ranges as a waste of time and dead action when point in fact, they have some of the heaviest underlying action.

 The set up from accumulation, confirmation of the uptrend and distribution in to the uptrend as I say over and over , "Smart money RARELY sells in to weakness or buys in to strength", the exact opposite, Thus Don Worden's admonition, "To make extraordinary gains in the market, you must know when to be CONTRARIAN", whether he knew what we see every day (I suspect he did) as to how smart money buys and sells, I'm not sure, but it's the clear reason why contrarian plays work and pay off the biggest.

 The 15 min in line and then in to accumulation at the range, a very specific, useful chart.

The 5 min chart doing the same. What is interesting is in to USO's pullback today, 3C is making a leading positive move.

Looking at the 3 min (small underlying action) you can see what the market was looking at, the Iran peace deal or whatever it's called. Strangely, USO has remain relatively unaffected through some of the worst MENA region conflicts like the Arab Spring, Syria in many extreme cases, Israel threats and bombing runs, etc. It seems oil is a lot more resilient than you'd assume.

 This is the 4 hour chart of Brent Futures, it looks just like the USO chart, the difference being one is an ETF, the other actual futures and one represents WTI crude while the above represents Brent, that's good signal confirmation.

And the 5 min chart shows the same thing as USO 3 min, some profit taking before the weekend deal, it seems to be over or close to it and oil has held the range.

I think so far so good and oil is in the end phase of it's accumulation period.