Here's where we stand

If you have been following this site since early on, you probably have heard me call this that "Cats and Dogs Rally".

Here's how it works, there's a period toward the end of a bull run or bull market where people feel like the new bull has taken off and they sat it out and missed it, so they look for cheap stocks to buy up and smart money knows this. The stock pattens prove it. It's an explosive period because they are low volume, low price stocks that move huge.

If you follow me on Trade-Guild you know I've been saying for months this is a "Historic" bear market rally-not the start of a bull and I expect new lows to be made. Well make hey while the sun is shining and that's what we did. The fact is, over the last week, especially since earnings started with Alcoa's flop, sentient has finally flipped and stocks and rallies have nothing to do with value, and everything to do with market sentiment. So I'm not going to list anymore of the CAT and DOG longs. If I did, I'd just be repeating what's already on the list. A few that re still viable IMO:

SSN, CXM, MOVE, PEBO may have some more upside after that nice run, CRTX, MNTG, CMM, AMCC, and ENG.

If you have one not on the list and it looks ok or you want a second opinion just email me, then by all means, hold onto it, but be very conservative in how much you put into it. The last chance run for any of these stocks is entirely dependent on a market bounce which I think we may get.

Here's the new reality. the focus here is going to switch, not because I want it to, it's because you take what the market offers. The watchlist I look at and add to every night is about 400 stocks, out of which 30% are doing nothing 20% look like longs, and 50% or maybe more are stunningly amazing short set-ups that are 3 days of bounce away from picture perfect entries.

Stocks fall faster then they rise because fear is stronger then greed. These are exceptionally high probability shorts and with a bounce, they'll be in perfect position with little risk. They won't make you 20% in a day, but they will make you money and as we go along, I'll show you how to make more than 100% in a short position. I'll also start giving you the Ultra ETF's that I think are going to make a lot of money.

So it's sad that the CATS and DOGS fun is over, but now is the time that we can make bigger commitments to longer term positions and make a lot of money over the next several months.

BUT! For now, you have to be patient. That is the only edge you have over Wall Street, patience. Wait for the bounce. I have hundreds of stocks that are perfect shorts-look at GS and JPM-they are picture perfect, if the just bounce a little. So don't swing for the fences, tke whatever the market gives you in these longs if it bounces and take it fairly quick. Then get ready to back up the truck and get serious about committing capital to high probability shorts.

The second shoe is about to drop.

The Market Waits

Even not knowing about tonight's State of the Union Address, it's clear the market is waiting on something and it looks exceptionally dangerous right not. I have 100 shorts that need a bounce to be perfect set-ups, but they ned the bounce and the market yesterday at the close was ugly. So play it safe right now-be conservative. We'll know soon enough.

Strange Times

The market is due for a bounce in my opinion, it looks like it wants to bounce, but it is not acting well-that makes this a very dangerous time. There are a ton of great looking shorts that if they just bounced, would be perfect. On the other hand-the market doesn't need to bounce, it's not oversold, it can continue down. So it's a tough call right now, but I'm going with "wait for the bounce". In the meantime-longs that still look good to me:

SSN, TXCC, MBRK, CXM, CRTX, FOLD, MTLK and BOFL

All the other ides will be on the spread sheet, just be patient, you'll get a fat pitch. And if you do go for the shorts now, thinking you'll miss the bus, be careful and limit those positions so they can absorb a bounce.

Good luck.

I Hate Mondays

They usually carry over whatever the market's behavior was on Friday-usually. There have been M&A announcements which are almost lways typical for a Mondy and there have been some recently-that gives the mrket a boost.

Are we oversold? Not even close-especially not when considering how ovverbought the market has been. However there's support right at the Oct. highs and they're not far away. So a bounce may be coming soon.

Until then I don't want to give out to many positions as the market movement is going to cut about half the probability, but for sure check out



SSN, CXM, PSUN, MBRK, FOLD, and CTIC all long.

**Here's a few more-some are familiar from older lists but still good-all long




NCS
GBNK
MOVE
TIBB
PEBO
CRTX
IDRA
TXCC
CMM
WSBF
TSFG
MNTG


No shorts today, we'll wait for the bounce first.

Jan. 22 Trades

Here's the newest trades for Friday Jan 22, 2010

Patience Pays Off-Trades for Jan 21

BOFL flew today, that's why I'm still including ENG and SSN if you haven't taken a position there yet. MOT has been on the list, but it is still within shorting range. All the ETF's I mentioned are worth a foot in the door to get a position started.

The dollar broke out of a bull flag today-Bad news for the market. Be careful with oil/Gold right now.

I thought this would be a "V" shape reversal, but all of the sudden I'm seeing tops everywhere.

I listed a few tonight that have the potential for big gains-the high fliers, but there's a lot of nice shorts there too and if you don't have some short exposure, I'd be careful with the longs.

I'll update the targets in the tomorrow-all trades are at the open/at market and as always, feel free to email me about any of the ideas. A few I really like-FBP and BBX plus what I listed above.

Last Night's Decision

In my opinion was the right call-we are seeing 2-week new lows in most averages and on heavy volume. The stocks I said to stick with are for the most part, all doing well. BOFL had a huge gain earlier this am and I still like the other two, especially SSN. The ETF's I mentioned and MOT are working well too.

Who Knows at This Point?

I still really like ENG, SSN and BOFL long, they look as ready to move as any stock I've listed here.

Volatility

Tonight I'm not adding any new positions, I have ideas but keeping money is a lot easier than making it. With the election in Mass over, there's potential for all kinds of things to happen. There are enough stocks posted the last several days to pick from if you want to play the market. I would do so on this condition-the market appears to show signs of a gp up and the stocks you select long show signs of a gap up. I suggest taking any significant profits and tighten up stops as we do not know what this will turn into.

I have a good feeling this could turn into a bear trap, that is why I urge you to consider taking any 1-day profits you might acquire. If the market gaps up and reverses on volume to the down side, it's ti,e to look at the shorts on ,y list of recent. Also FAZ or SKF, MZZ and TWM are worth dabbling in if that scenario seems to play out-you can always add and stop out if need be, just keep it reasonable. the portfolio I'm managing has gone nearly 50% cash and the rest of the positions are at 1% risk.

Keep the questions coming, finally I'm getting the emails. This is the best way for be to be of service to you. If I see something significant, I will post intraday so check back. Citi's earnings didn't seem to be received well by the street, at least in AH. This is the change in sentiment I've been sensing.

The Trades for Tuesday the 19th are up

Just click Current list and scroll down to the bottom-they will be listed as the 18th as that is when I published them, but are for execution on the open at market.

There's a few possible big mover longs. Friday's list just about all the longs sat and the shorts moved, so there's some good candidates on Friday's list as well. I'm hanging back a little, hedging a little as we remain at a transitional moment in the market with extreme volatility possible. The close on Friday was ugly so you should have some exposure on the short side already.

The election in Mass. has been called out by Cramer as a probable market moving event, it'll probably be so just because of the number of his blind followers. This is a short term event-don't  get knocked off any long term pans you ay have. We'll look at how this may influence the midterms as a Republican victory may very well peel off some of the President's coalition of Democrat's that are up for mid-term elections-translation, it may scare the pants off of them and cause them to abandon the President's agenda. This would have a more lasting impact.

Any questions, always feel free to email me at Brandt@Trade-Guild.net

**SSN look particularly interesting.