Reading Time

If you haven't seen it yet, I posted an article on Trade-Guild "Is a Kiss More then a Kiss?"

I suggest reading it and several of the articles below to get a feel for the market. We are extremely overbought, but that means next to nothing as overbought can go on for a long time. There are however, several reliable indications that suggest we are close to the end of the uptrend. That is why this article is important to read, it lays out a couple of scenarios that you need to be prepared for.

I do not, have not and do not expect to see anything bullish that will change the primary downtrend we are still locked in so long trades are strangely counter trend if that makes any sense. I'll be posting more there, some sector opportunities and you'll see those stocks here, but you should understand the basics behind the sector and why the trades will be showing up here.

This is a difficult time as the market heads higher and all the indications are showing the equivalent of a Ginger Bread House. However, there are a few people that have been at this a lot  longer then I, like since the 1950's, writing indicators for Wall Street Firms and have seen a lot more then I and I feel confident that their assessment is largely the same as mine.

The market is dubious and deceptive and you must question everything you see and hear from Wall Street and CNBC-especially Cramer (who single handedly took out one of the most reliable technical formations over the last 100 years in a single night-AAPL).  I'd be watching for distribution in that stock over the next month.

If you find you are having trouble in the market now, always feel free to email me or go to Trade-Guild and read everything under "Resources and Concepts" and make sure you are on the same page. We can be wrong a lot of times and still make money, or without management we can be wrong a lot of times and lose everything.

Trades will be up Sunday

TRADES FOR MARCH 4TH ARE POSTED

I Highly recommend reading the last 3-4 posts at www.Trade-Guild.net , especially the last one tonight.

There may be a great opportunity tomorrow to finally break this stalemate in the market the last 3 days.

Take a look at tonight's trades, I like them all especially the longs, but remember, under $5 is speculative and you need to use appropriate measures in your risk management. 

Keep a special eye on GS, GOOG and AAPl for opportunities (a couple of possible false breakouts that could move down rapidly)-most have been on the lost the last few days so be sure to review the notes and email me with any questions.

Good luck!

NEW TRADES ARE UP

The short sale trades are fine as is, they can be taken at market open at market, the long trades  a little more speculative so keep the risk lower, maybe 1% or so.

Good luck-we should see a reversal in the next day or so.

FAZ

FAZ (3x leveraged short on financials ETF) is looking strong here with a tweezers bottom reversal, it also has fairly low risk in this area, just be careful of market correlation -for example if you already have a short on GS or JPM, FAZ would be a bit redundant and you wouldn't want 50% of your portfolio all in financials.

Reversal

Get your shorts organized, today we saw the gap up in the QQQQ that quite frequently is found the day after a shooting star, the only thing needed now is a close below $45.50 for an extremely reliable reversal pattern, the lower the better. Read Trade-Guild for more information on the broader market.

By the way, AAPL is in great position for a short right now.

Looks like a reversal

Shooting stars, afternoon sell-offs, everything today looked very much like a reversal so take a look at the recent lists. I especially like AAPL at $206-$208 Short. See if you can maybe put in a limit short on that one-It's very high probability coming off that right shoulder and low risk as well with plenty of downside.

The other ETFs I added are definitely interesting. You need to keep your positions un-correlated though so if you have questions regarding that, positions, entries, or stops, go ahead and email me and I'll get back to you ASAP.

NEW TRADES ARE UP-this could be a very precise entry

Patience and Risk Management Pay-off!

Check out the last two posts at Trade-Guild.net Today is looking a lot like a reversal day. You have time, you want to trade toward the end of the day, find your favorite short and get your toes wet. This is the best looking reversal signal we've had in this entire rally. Check the list  and if you need help-email me, I'll try to get to all of you before the close, just keep it short.

Good luck!

Patience is Back in Style

There's more then enough longs and shorts, but the longs must be considered countertrend and speculative, thus keep the risk reasonable-I'd say no more then half a normal position.

The market is strange today, financials were weak, thus the S&P was weak, but biotechs and the NASDAQ bros were strong. It's becoming a very volatile market which is typical of tops and thus your greatest asset right now and always over Wall Street is patience. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BE IN THE MARKET! So take the trades that look the best, look like solid, fat pitches right down the middle and leave the other stuff for someone else. Reduce your risk until we get a trend table that makes some sense.

As I've said, there's a time to load up the truck and a time to be patient. If you have questions, please feel free to email me-you are paying for the service-USE IT!

New Trades for tomorrow are up.

Intraday Update

Here are some long and short trades from last night's list that look good into the close so far for execution-for specifics refer to the spread sheet trades from last night.


MNTG, SLV, JPM, GS, UGP, KLAC, DTV, JOYG, TXN, SOHU, STD,
LOGI, DSTI, ADBE, SLH, ATW

A LOT TO CHOOSE FROM

I know tonight's list is a lot of stocks and as of yet there are no stops, initially you can probably use about a 10%-15% stop to figure your position sizing, hopefully before market open I'll have the stops and notes complete.

Pretty much any of these trades can be taken at market open at market price. I especially like the few long positions near the bottom. I would consider these "Cats and Dogs-Rally" type stocks; as such I wouldn't put a lot of money into them. However, they look a lot like the setups that were generating the double digit daily returns in January. For now, I'd keep them as speculative positions and don't swing for the fences, keep the risk low and the stops a little wide on them-give them a chance to work.

The short positions, for the most part are all in high probability/low risk areas. While I would keep the stops a little tighter, these are the type of shorts we may have to take several swings at before we hit the trend so we want to keep the losses to about 1% of position or portfolio depending on how you are applying your risk model. If you need help figuring it out with position sizing and stops, find the trades you like and email me, I'll help you with position sizing.

There are so many because the recent rally has put many in a great area to short them. You needn't trade them all, but rather make sure you are not chosing trades that are highly correlated to positions you may already have. The recent ideas (within the last week) are also still in play.

Emil me with any questions. Also broadly speaking and you'll see it in the recent trade ideas-especially the intraday post last week, we are short Silver -SLV (or buy ZSL-2x leveraged Ultrashort) and long gold.

Check out www.Trade-Guild.net  for today's market analysis for this week.