New Trades up

Read the rant at T.G.

I posted a few longs tonight, but I think FRE/FNM are also a couple of longs worth a shot. Email me any companies you know the Feds have seized that is still publicly trading and I'll take a look at it and see if there's anything there.

Toes in the Water

Check earnings dates before taking any of these trades. They are about evenly split between longs and shorts. The market hasn't decided yet with A's putrid numbers that were more like a pig with lipstick. Today however, INTC blew out earnings, however it's all about sentiment. AA got slightly spanked today, INTC will probably be rewarded tomorrow, but the question is not what did they do, it is what will they do and today's report might be a hard act to follow next quarter.

So I've listed a few trades that looks decent whichever way this thing breaks. Interestingly, financials didn't look great....

There may be some targets there or some double ETFs.

Remember, it's earnings, if you have to trade, do so cautiously.

Read this

That's my take and even though AA is down a little in after hours, we need to see the reaction tomorrow, as well as the six banks I mentioned-you may want to look into going short in one of those. 

Above is an hourly 3C chart-note the negative divergence (distribution) into the top-same with the blue (long term) 3C.

And here's today's 1-min 3C chart? Did someone know something as they sold into the gap up this a.m.?

I'll post trades tomorrow, but I want to see which way sentiment goes.

Earnings Season Begins Monday

I hate to trade during earnings, you lose your edge and technical analysis is all about gaining an edge. That being said, there will be no trade ideas posted tonight until we see the market's reaction to Alcoa's earnings report.

What we are looking for is not what's in the report, but how the market responds to the report. The last few days the market has been marked up and looks set to gap up Monday morning based on Asian trade tonight. This behavior is impossible to reconcile at this point when the market breadth has been shaky at best and apathetic in most cases over the last 3 weeks. Speaking of which, it seems the market is up almost everyday, but the SP-500 has gained less then 3% in the last 3 weeks, just to put things into perspective.

If you want to get a leg up, the sectors I'll be paying close attention to next week will be: Computer and Software Services, Conglomerates, Media, Consumer Durables, Drugs, Energy, Health Services, Materials, Housing, Auto Manufacturers, Financials, Specialty Retail and Treasury related securities.

Lets see what mood the market is in. It's fair to say that interest rates will be rising and there are a lot of industries that will suffer as a result of that so rate sensitive sectors like semi-conductors and bio-techs, businesses that rely on borrowed capital that are not producing positive cash flow will all be on the radar.

So take a break, be patient and we'll leap when the odds are in our favor.

Have a great week.

Sell High Buy Low

Same as being long, just in reverse-short selling! Today's higher prices gave better entries into many of the shorts I've laid out recently. Still we have the problem of confirmation, but one thing to keep in mind, there are more up days in a bear market then down days....

Don't swing for the fences yet. This is a volatile time. Clean up those longs, take profits. I'd be oriented at least 50% of your invested portfolio on the short side and maybe 50% of the portfolio in the market.

WE HAVE IT

Please read the last two articles posted at Trade-Guild.net today, finally we have some decisive negative breadth and even on a day when we had some good news like the treasury auctions going well, sentiment is shifting.

I've included a few spec trades tonight, but a lot of the trade, especially the ETFs toward the bottom of the list, are longer term plays. I think you can get your toes wet, but wait for more confirmation before diving right in.

It is important that you read the Trade Guild posts.

Good luck

DON'T KNOW IF THIS IS A MISTAKE

I posted some decent looking trades, I'm not really that confident in the market right now, I want to see some confirmation. the upside moves are nearly meaningless, they have little breadth. However, before we can jump in with both feet, we need the confirmation that we have been awaiting. You paid for the service so I need to give you something for your money, but right now, please play it safe, don't swing for the fences right now.

Extended Easter

It's interesting the Fed called this Monday meeting having known the job numbers, having just had a very poor showing for Treasuries at auction and on a day when half the world's markets will be closed as in much of the rest of the world, Easter is a two-day event running into Monday and on a day that is sure to have light volume here in the Us with extended holiday weekends.

I wonder what they have to say? The last time they did this they hiked the rate on the discount window. In any case, something is not passing the smell test. I'm going to urge caution for Monday, take a look at the recent lists, there are a lot of good ideas on there such as MOT short and some longs if you are so inclined to trade, but I'm going to see how this plays out.

Technical Analysis is about putting the odds in your favor, it's like the difference between a gambler and a card counter. With such uncertainty-not to mention the market's reaction to the Friday jobs report- it's difficult to put any odds in your favor. Monday trading is more akin to gambling so hand tight. I'll deliver you up lots of ideas once we see where this is going.

And Happy Easter...

NEW LIST UP

HERE ARE SOME NOTES ON TRADES TO KEEP AN EYE ON:


Reiterate ACV (S), MFN (S) HOLD, Watch for BHS to trigger a short.

As the pattern in the NBL short has developed, I'd suggest a stop of $73.98

Time to take profits on DCTH.

TRGL is looking like a strong short as is CPX and KALU.

For those long BEE, it looks like it's about to make another move up.

If you need trades- long or short for any particular industry, email me.

NEW TRADES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE UP

There's quite a few longs and shorts and inverse longs as well. Take a look and be careful-the last few are all homebuilders and you don't want to be overly correlated- especially to the dollar (ex: commodities, metals, oil, financial, tech).