Bull Trap

Take a look at the last post at Trade-Guild.net. Then take a look at the recent shorts. I'll add more tonight, but I think there's a strong chance a bulltrap was just set.

Grab Bag

I'm having some trouble with the spreadsheet tonight, so I'm listing the trades here as you'd find them on the spreadsheet.

Symbol/Position long or short/ Stop/ Notes and Targets



COIN/ L/ $.86/ target $1.48 speculative

AKS/ S/ $20.10/ target $12

XOMA/ L/ $.63/ target=1.50 speculative

LSCC/ L/ $3.81/ target $7

CPF/ L/ $1.90/ speculative, but could be a big winner-target $5.75+

EMKR/ L/ $1.15/ TARGET =POSSIBLY $4

CRBC/ L/ $1/ VERY SPECULATIVE-COULD BE A BIG MOVER-TARGET AS HIGH AS $5+

BAC/ S/ $19.07 /LIMIT ORDER <$18.11 TARGET $14, MAYBE LOWER

STD/ S/ $15/ LIMIT ORDER<$13.50 TARGET BELOW $10

NVDA/ S/ $17.40/ LIMIT ORDER< $16.36-TARGET $14-$11.50

STP/ S/ $14.67/ TARGET $11-$8

I'll get them on the spread sheet as soon as it starts behaving. We had 7% and 10% movers today from last night's list! I hope you made some $$

LONG TRADES

Here are a few nice looking longs that look ready to break out of bases. Just remember your risk management rules, no position loses more then 1-2% of portfolio value, do not over correlate positions and be cautious with speculative trades. Last, take a gift when you get it.

Good luck. Intermediate term/long term, still looking for a significant move down.

GOOD START

We have what looks to be a change in sentiment, still, I advise you keep your positions reasonable until we get solid confirmation. I listed quite a few ETF's, but no stops or targets yet, I want to see how things develop, but these are selected for the maximum potential profits.

The other trades are decent looking as well.

As always, in a situation like this (uncertainty), I would say buy your position in 1/3's.

We'll see this week if this is the real thing, but volume Friday showed us a commitment on the part of traders we haven't seen in months, maybe a lot longer. Be ready, be cautious.

New Trades up

Read the rant at T.G.

I posted a few longs tonight, but I think FRE/FNM are also a couple of longs worth a shot. Email me any companies you know the Feds have seized that is still publicly trading and I'll take a look at it and see if there's anything there.

Toes in the Water

Check earnings dates before taking any of these trades. They are about evenly split between longs and shorts. The market hasn't decided yet with A's putrid numbers that were more like a pig with lipstick. Today however, INTC blew out earnings, however it's all about sentiment. AA got slightly spanked today, INTC will probably be rewarded tomorrow, but the question is not what did they do, it is what will they do and today's report might be a hard act to follow next quarter.

So I've listed a few trades that looks decent whichever way this thing breaks. Interestingly, financials didn't look great....

There may be some targets there or some double ETFs.

Remember, it's earnings, if you have to trade, do so cautiously.

Read this

That's my take and even though AA is down a little in after hours, we need to see the reaction tomorrow, as well as the six banks I mentioned-you may want to look into going short in one of those. 

Above is an hourly 3C chart-note the negative divergence (distribution) into the top-same with the blue (long term) 3C.

And here's today's 1-min 3C chart? Did someone know something as they sold into the gap up this a.m.?

I'll post trades tomorrow, but I want to see which way sentiment goes.

Earnings Season Begins Monday

I hate to trade during earnings, you lose your edge and technical analysis is all about gaining an edge. That being said, there will be no trade ideas posted tonight until we see the market's reaction to Alcoa's earnings report.

What we are looking for is not what's in the report, but how the market responds to the report. The last few days the market has been marked up and looks set to gap up Monday morning based on Asian trade tonight. This behavior is impossible to reconcile at this point when the market breadth has been shaky at best and apathetic in most cases over the last 3 weeks. Speaking of which, it seems the market is up almost everyday, but the SP-500 has gained less then 3% in the last 3 weeks, just to put things into perspective.

If you want to get a leg up, the sectors I'll be paying close attention to next week will be: Computer and Software Services, Conglomerates, Media, Consumer Durables, Drugs, Energy, Health Services, Materials, Housing, Auto Manufacturers, Financials, Specialty Retail and Treasury related securities.

Lets see what mood the market is in. It's fair to say that interest rates will be rising and there are a lot of industries that will suffer as a result of that so rate sensitive sectors like semi-conductors and bio-techs, businesses that rely on borrowed capital that are not producing positive cash flow will all be on the radar.

So take a break, be patient and we'll leap when the odds are in our favor.

Have a great week.

Sell High Buy Low

Same as being long, just in reverse-short selling! Today's higher prices gave better entries into many of the shorts I've laid out recently. Still we have the problem of confirmation, but one thing to keep in mind, there are more up days in a bear market then down days....

Don't swing for the fences yet. This is a volatile time. Clean up those longs, take profits. I'd be oriented at least 50% of your invested portfolio on the short side and maybe 50% of the portfolio in the market.

WE HAVE IT

Please read the last two articles posted at Trade-Guild.net today, finally we have some decisive negative breadth and even on a day when we had some good news like the treasury auctions going well, sentiment is shifting.

I've included a few spec trades tonight, but a lot of the trade, especially the ETFs toward the bottom of the list, are longer term plays. I think you can get your toes wet, but wait for more confirmation before diving right in.

It is important that you read the Trade Guild posts.

Good luck