The DIA

 5 min

15 min

Ironically the 1 average still at a small gain looks the worst

Intraday Support taken out

The Fed and SRS

Just yesterday I mentioned SRS and the fact that the pullback looked like a decent Risk:reward entry area. The Fed today changed their language by a very subtle, "weakness in housing starts" to "the housing sector"

SRS responded favorably.

I'm having trouble uploading the chart, but it's still very buyable here.

The market turned quite volatile, but lower.

The Forest

Taking a look at the longer term charts, rather then the intraday moves, here are the 15 min charts which have had good success in calling reversals lately

 DIA 15 min

 FAS -long financials- 15 min

 FAZ short financials 15 min

 QQQQ 60 min-the 15 is in line

SPY 15 min

Again the theme in financials seems to be the unwinding and reversal of their recent rotation.

More on Cramer from Z.H. today, I just thought the timing was ironic.

BAC-Cramer Likes It....

Well, f you have been around Trade-guild long enough you know I'm not a Cramer fan. The Cramer effect is real and it gives people who would prefer not to think for themselves confidence in Cramer's picks. I'm still having trouble though reading that disclosure at the end of the show that rolls by so quickly and with a diagonal screen that you literally need to TIVO it and pause the thing to read it-there's some interesting nuggets in there.

Also if you have been following Trade-Guild for the last fw years, you know that I've showed distribution in Oil the same week that Cramer said to buy oil on the next bad inventories report. A week later, the unprecedented, multi-year rally in oil ended and never looked back. Guess who was left holding the bag?

I'm not accusing Cramer, but I will say that it's pretty handy to have millions of viewers buying a stock that smart money is trying to sell-instant demand.

BAC is in Cramer's charitable trust, how long? I don't know, but if it's been in there for the last 7 months or so, it's seen a decline of about 35%.

The media is tired of bank bashing. I just moved over the weekend, I have a new cable service and I don't know the channels yet. I turned on the TV and it happened to be on CNBC-this would never have happened on purpose, but it was there and Cramer was talking about BAC so I listened for 5 minutes-that's my limit.

The Thrust of Cramer's "Buy Banks" argument went like this....

Financials are safe to buy-because, there's no money in reporting bad stories about banks, reporters make money by breaking big new stories, bashing banks is an old story.

There was a great article in the New York Times on BAC.

People are tired about the mortgage mess, robo signers and the Wikileaks story that never materialized (with a condescending tone) plus "people got jealous of all these people who haven't paid their mortgages in the last 18 months"

"Media coverage matters"- "Bank bashing is too boring, we're yawning" "with the media out of the way, we can now buy bank weakness"

"You can go for Bank of America"

The bottom line, you can buy banks now because the reporters chasing the Pulitzer Prize aren't going to win it with old stories about banks that people are tired of. Hmmm. Sounds like a great reason to buy huh?

Here's this morning's BAC charts

I'm surprised BAC isn't up more this a.m. There may still be a trade (which I put out a cover the BAC short notice on last week) in BAC. Stay tuned.

Preliminary Update

It seems the slight advantage gained again this morning is being used to sell into, at least in the early going. Note how much worse the DIA/DOW looks then the others, actually the Q's aren't far behind.

 DIA 1

 QQQQ 1

SPY 1

BBY A Sign of Things to Come in Retail

First it was GAP, I warned that grocery stores that work on ultra-slim profit margins, and count on high volume to make up for it, were probably a prime target for extended weakness. Last night in my Market scan I came up with some interesting results, primarily that retail is not looking half as good as the Retail Sales Report would have you believe. Today may offer an opportunity to get into some trades that my bounce a bit  the retail sector-including grocery stores "Sell the News"?

Here's a list of some of the stocks that popped up as looking like they'll soon be following in the footsteps of GAP/BBY-it my not be a one day decimation, but still worthy of investigation.

Here is the Retail Sector overall-all are daily charts

This includes retailers of all sorts, here are the specific retailers that look to present an opportunity.

 AMZN

 BJ

 FDO

 JCP

 M

 NILE

 QKLS

 RDK

 SKS

 SWY

 TGT

 WFMI

WMT

Blown Opportunity

Today the market had a lot of advantages, Asia did well, China did not raise rates, the Euro snapped back from its gap and went parabolic sending the dollar lower, the averages gapped up, there was no bad economic news out, POMO operations came in at an excellent rate leaving primary dealers with cash to burn in equities, but despite all of this, the market does nothing. This is starting to smell like a shift in sentiment, certainly a shift in sector rotation as the theme most of the day was the shift in financials as it continued to unfold today.

Today the NASDAQ breaks 8 straight days of gains and closes down -.36%, the S&P went no where, and the Dow eeked out .16% with a shooting star candlestick. The NASDAQ put in a reversal candle called “dark cloud cover”. All in all, the market had every advantage and gave them all up.

 QQQQ 10 min-serious damage done today.

QQQQ wedge, with a dark cloud cover reversal candle.

As I talked about a lot today, financials are not looking good, they've rallied and smart money looks as if it has taken their gains and are now done playing the sector.

This negative divergence now seems to be shifting down, this of course puts pressure on the S&P-500 which is financial heavy.

This is the SPY 15 min chart, all of the 3C damage in the red box was done today alone!

The NASDAQ also saw some pretty bad losses across the tech and a few other sectors.

Semis clearly coming under heavy selling pressure.

ADBE down -3.13%, this is one of our featured short positions as the test of the flag-or the Kiss the Channel goodbye have sent it lower, it should see a new low.

INTC 60-min showing nearly a month of distribution, down nearly 2% today.

NVDA 60 min also looking ready to turn down-down over 2.5% today

EXPE showed quite a loss today, there are other stocks I'll highlight tomorrow in tourism/travel/hospitality that look to be under pressure, including casinos.

Dell was also down -3.82% , not helping the NAS 100 today.

My computer will e working overtime tonight as I have set up some scans to look for sector rotation, but by the amount of different industries I saw break out Friday and give it back today, I think there's a serious shift of sentiment going on, that or smart money is done playing in the long sandbox.

Keep an eye on the trade list tomorrow as new ideas will be up as a result of tonight's scans. That is if my computer doesn't freeze up-that's right it's 30 degrees here in S. Florida. I can't remember the last time it was so cold, I know, all of you up north are really feeling for me.

The Dollar or the Banks?

Earlier today I suggested that with little news/macro-econmic data out today, the dollar or EUR/USD trade is likely to influence much of the action.

However, from last week's sector rotation into Financials, which supported the financial heavy S&P-500, was certainly showing signs of distribution as the accumulated shares (for the bounce) are distributed into higher prices. That distribution accelerated today, leaving the XLF which was seeing gains last week of +.83% to + 1.65 (and the week before, one day  gains of +2.5%) finishing the day at 0%, that from an earlier gap higher.

Here's the comparison of the EUR/USD vs S&P and Financials vs S&P

 Above, the SPY is in red, the FXE-Euro is in green. The action in the SPY was similar earlier on in the day, but it diverged badly at the end of the day as financials started falling apart.

Here the SPY is in red and the XLF is in green, again note the FX/Currency market controlled the early session until the XLF went into heavy distribution. Ultimately, the Financials were responsible for today's loss of upside.

The S&P- +.01 %

Dow-30 +.17%

NASDAQ-100 -.35%

Update

 Amazing leading negative divergence in the Q's 10 min!

SPY 15 min leading negative divergence