GLD Continues lower

 GLD is already trading at higher volume then the entirety of yesterday. The way it's heading now, the last two days of buyers will be caught in a bulltrap, should GLD continue lower to the $154 area, nearly 2 weeks of longs will be caught in a bull trap. This is why I have been warning about GLD so often. "If" the longer term 3C negative divergences play out on this leg, we could be looking at a very serious reversal in GLD, but most of you know that I have felt the July 12th breakout move would likely lead to a trap.

 Here's the intraday action in GLD, any sign of a 1 min positive divergence has led to no more then a brief consolidation as expected. I would think the BTD crowd will step in at some point shortly, we'll see what the underlying action does to these perma bulls.

Even the 15 min chart was negative on today's gap up open, that's some serous distribution in a short period of time.

Trade Idea- ROYL (long)

 This is my moving average crossover screen to weed out false whip saw signals associated with moving average crossover systems. As you can see n the price panel, there was a bullish crossover of the 10-day (yellow) above the 22-day (blue) back in June, this signal WAS NOT confirmed and not taken as a long trade because the additional 2 indicators did not give a long signal. My custom indicator in yellow (middle window) did not crossover its moving average and RSI (bottom window) remained below 50, all 3 must confirm like they recently did in white around the start of July. It's typical for pullbacks to stop at the 10/22 day moving average as we see happened recently here, actually, after finding support at the 22-day yesterday, ROYL rallied a bit today.

 The daly 3C chart is looking spectacular as it has gone in to leading positive position as prices formed a "U" shaped base or rounding bottom. The daily chart s one of the strongest signals of accumulation and ROYL is n the right place for it.

 The 30 min chart showed accumulation, a brief run followed by a negative divergence which caused the pullback, there's been a positive divergence since the pullback.

 The 10 min chart confirms the positive divergence on the pullback.

I think ROYL is getting ready to make a move up

I would consider my Trend Channel as a stop as it has held the entire move up thus far, right now it's in the same position as the 22-day s.m.a. This is the stop I would use for the initial entry.

UUP/$USD Follow Up

How many posts have I put out recently on the divergence between price and the underlying action in UUP just this week alone? Here's yesterday's "Still Something Fishy With the $USD"

And today, we have what the underlying indications have been suggesting, a move up.

 First we had a break below a triangle type pattern, then yesterday a break below June Support. For new members, we almost always see a false break such as this one yesterday below June support, the day before an reversal occurs. The downside break does 2 things, it causes longs to sell and shorts to jump in, both are considered selling, which allows Wall Street to accumulate in the open as they are simply taking the other side of the trade. The second thing t does is perpetuate the snowball effect as prices move back above former resistance, all of those shorts that jumped in yesterday are now at a loss and many (especially in the heavily leveraged FX market-a little less since Dodd/Frank) are covering adding more demand which causes prices to rise faster-the snowball effect.

 Here's an intraday chart of yesterday's break of June support and today's move back above it.

 This hourly chart shows 2 accumulation zones, one back in late June that led to a move up and the more recent one the last week or so. When price moves down and 3C moves up, that's a positive divergence and almost always accumulation. When it occurs on 10, 15, 30 and 60 min charts, it's almost always institutional money. On 1 and 5 min charts t can be the start of institutional accumulation or it can be market makers and specialists moving the market which is often front running large orders they are filling for institutional clients. That's a very simplistic view and it's not quite that easy.

 The 30 min chart also confirms accumulation in UUP-a proxy for the Dollar Index. Note the divergence gets stronger on yesterday's break of support.

 Here's the 15 min chart confirming the same with a powerful leading positive divergence (vs the relative divergence).

 The 10 min chart also is leading and showed strong accumulation toward the end of the day yesterday.

 The 5 min chart is in leading position as well.

And the more recently detailed 1 min chart shows the added accumulation in the late afternoon yesterday.

We've been watching this underlying acton as the dollar fell, and found it strange, but we are watching institutional money, we don't know why they are doing what they are doing, we just know they are ahead of the information curve.

So, we may be finally looking at a resolution of a well confirmed positive divergence in the $USD.

GLD Update

Yesterday I posted "Gold Still Looks Untrustworthy"

Here are the charts...

 Here's the wedge that I warned about yesterday in the post linked above. This is a bearish ascending wedge, the implication by traditional technical analysis standards is that once the wedge reaches the apex, it will break down. Traditional Technical Analysis has taught this for nearly a century. As we know, Wall Street has adjusted to the widespread use of traditional technical analysis and will almost always through a head fake play like this upside breakout from the wedge. Traditional technical analysis also teaches us to take the other side of the trade if a pattern fails, this is the double whammy. First retail TA traders go short GLD because of the bearish wedge, then they are knocked out of the short position on the gap up open. Thinking the wedge is a failed pattern, the go long gold and finally the wedge plays out and drops, making them 2 time losers. Why technicians haven't adapted to Wall Street's relentlessly predictable games is beyond me, it's right there on the charts in front of us every single day.

 Here's the longer view of the 3C hourly chart which has been warning that GLD is likely under distribution in to higher prices, distribution almost always occurs in to higher prices and accumulation into flat or lower prices, unlike what Technician's assume which is that GLD is under distribution now-that was done yesterday.

This is what prompted yesterday's warning, distribution on the 1 min chart n GLD in to rising prices. As you can see there's a small positive divergence now, which may lead to an intraday bounce or correction.

If you went short at the time of the post yesterday, you already made a profit in a few short hours.

USO Update

USO just started leading on the 1 min, every time it crosses that flag the HFTs are collecting volume rebates, it looks like it will break north of the flag.

USO Update

It could still take longer for a counter trend trade to develop, but I've been consistent in my opinion on USO, a drop that is accumulated and then a real breakout above resistance. I think the charts as of now support this idea.

 There is a slight 5 min positive divergence, however it's not enough for me at this point for a long trade.

 The 1 min chart is simply in line and not showing a positive divergence, this is why "it's not enough" for me at this point.

 As to my intermediate term outlook I mentioned, The 10 min chart (for new members, the longer the timeframe, the more important the move it predicts) is in a leading negative divergence-the worst kind.

 The 15 min on a relative basis (vs price) is hitting new lows.

 The 30 min chart s at new lows in a leading negative divergence.

This daily chart is why my intermediate view remains ultimately bullish, this is a positive looking daily chart. As you know, my thought has been USO pulls back to lower levels, is accumulated there, and then makes an attempt at the flag resistance and this time breaks through.

I'll keep you updated on any changes.

PNFP Short Trade Follow Up

Here's our initial entry post... Yesterday I followed up showing how bad PNFP was looking, it would have been nice to get some strength to short in to, but the trade is thus far working .

The white arrow is out initial entry, there have been numerous follow up posts on PNFP, all showing the weakness in 3C.

 Here's the distribution on the false breakout n PNFP at the red box.

 The 10 min chart is confirming the downtrend

 As is the 1 min chart.

We stll have some volatility in the mix and I consider PNFP to still be a valid short, I would set alerts for any upside momentum within the white box, the second entry would be on a break of the support trendline, which would be the second break of support, as you know I ALWAYS prefer to wait for the second break of an important top's support before shorting it. So if you missed the initial trade, just be patient, PNFP looks bad.

Make sure to set those alerts, we already had one entry fire off this morning.

USO Update

Not showing much yet...

Remember my Intermediate outlook on oil has been for a pullback inside the flag, which s accumulated and then a real breakout from the flag.

Here's the EIA Report released at 10:30

USO's initial reaction isn't good and on heavy volume.

USO Drama Continues

Yesterday we had a drop below support of the flag in USO which quickly recovered, but there was no accumulation or very little on the drop. Today, once again we are below the flag.

 Daily chart-flag

The breakout above the flag, inability to add to the breakout gains and two consecutive drops back into the flag. Remember, most of the good energy report trades have been counter trend or counter finding, meaning bad reports have rallied and vice versa, I'll be watching for 3C signals, 9 minutes to go.