Santelli on the NFP

Here it is, as we figured, pure manipulation.

End of Day Sector Rotation Gets Defensive Again

Financials, Basic Materials, and notably, Technology are all falling off, Utilities, probably the most defensive sector has been notably strong today, we don't usually see that on a risk on day as allocations tend to be more aggressive. Industrials are also picking up, which may be more of a rotation in to blue chip names. Energy has been climbing all day, I have little doubt that crude oil/USO has contributed to the turn around in Energy coming off a bad day yesterday(actually a string of bad days) as it fills the gap today.

As I expected just an hour ago or so, AAPL is showing weakness in to the close.

The NYSE Tick Index has been surprisingly mild today, after hours breadth will probably explain what's going on there.

Both GLD and SLV are down on the day, SLV has not broken it's trendline, but is very close to doing so. Other commodities have done pretty well including steel and copper, most probably as a result of the NFP print because the $USD is literally unchanged on the day.

The AEO short idea from yesterday still looks good, yesterday's long idea, GALE is up 30% on the day and up 43% since the idea yesterday and on increasing volume.

I'll give you the internals/breadth after the close.

TrimTabs Take on the Non-Farm Payroll

ES Update

I have been waiting for ES to do something before posting it,

AAPL

AAPL which is uncharacteristically underperforming the NASDAQ 100, just saw a pretty large break in volume.

 The most recent volume spike is in the area as an earlier spike, almost exactly. This is likely not smart money moving around a position so much as sending a signal to traders.

The charts below show AAPL has been negative throughout the day.

 1 min

 2 min

5 min

I would expect some downside movement as we move toward the close.

GLD Update

 From the earlier update today, it looked like GLD would break this channel, which as pointed out is slanting the wrong direction for a consolidation, something you may want to make note of for future reference, a consolidation develops counter to the trend. In any case, it seemed it would break this lower support line and it has done so.

 Here it is on an intraday basis, after testing resistance a few times, it broke pretty hard.

 This is the negative divergence when it first looked like it would break and this is what confirmation of the trend looks like, I pointed it out in some of the long trades we have that are making 30% in 3 days and here it is again, 3C is in lock step with price which is confirmation, something that has been long missing in the market's move.

This is the long term 60 min chart, which is what alerted me to the possibility of GLD reaching the top of its correction.

GLD is moving closer to a fairly high probability short, although I would not take a huge position in it as it may see safe haven buying in the days to come. On a longer term basis though, it still looks like either a primary or intermediate top .

PFE Trade Update

PFE was a trade idea from Jan 31, so far it's doing better then it looks, being down everyday since the idea despite the market. These trades that buck the market, even a little are usually the ones that really gain steam when they align with the market.

 This is what PFE looked like on Jan 31st as of the close. RSI was negative as well as 3C and it appeared we'd see a nice rounding top develop.

 This was the X-over screen short signal on the same day with RSI negatively divergent as well.

 This is PFE as of today and still looking good in the Trend Channel, which I would continue to use as a stop, currently at $21.70

 I would consider a new position or an add to on any strength toward the yellow 10-day moving average as this is rounding over beautifully.

Here's volume rounding over as well.

Because of its size, PFE is a good candidate for some long dated Puts.

The Greek Drama Is Coming To An End

The bast description of the Euro-zone out of Davos was that of, "A slow motion train wreck". Not only does this describe the immensity of the ordeal (look at the world financial global ramifications of Lehman and now imagine instead of a company, it's a country), but it also implies that we all know what the outcome of a train-wreck will be, in so far as to say, horrific.

As I made mention earlier in the week when the market took off on Wednesday from a bogus rumor about a Greek deal being done in hours (which we have hear dozens of times, this time the market acted out of character), when in fact we already knew from the day before that Greece and the Troika had reached an impasse which was forcing the Greek PM to schedule an emergency meeting as soon as Thursday. That meeting came today as mentioned in an earlier post, in which the new G-Pap threatened to resign if he could not get all 3 Greek political  parties on board to cave in to the Troika's demands so Greece wouldn't become the first developed nation in 65 years to default. It should be noted that in this new age of globalization, there is no historical precedent for such an event.

It seems that PM Papademos may have to resign as the meeting today didn't go too well.

The FT reported

Greece’s leaders oppose new austerity measures

All three party leaders in Greece’s teetering national unity government have opposed new austerity measures demanded by international lenders, forcing eurozone finance ministers to postpone approval of a new €130bn bail-out and moving the country closer to a full-blown default.

The further austerity cuts demanded by the Troika for them to consider the next tranche of bailout money that Greece needs in order to not default in March, have been rejected.

The Greeks did make a counter proposal that the Troika has rejected.

I was going to write last night about the rift between Germany and France as Mer-Kozy are no longer very cozy with the French President opposing the German plan to have the EU administer Greek Finances. Along those lines, the meeting set up by what is essentially the new Troika, included Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Luxembourg, notably absent was Sarkozy's invitation.

As things stand as of this moment, if the new bailout is not approved in a matter of days, Greece WILL default and I don't think there have been too many EU summits on making that an orderly default.

With each side now firmly dug in and refusing the other's demands, it seems that the slow motion train-wreck is about to make impact.

While Credit, as shown in an earlier chart today makes a run for the hills, equities march on as nothing bad can possibly happen. However the underlying tone has been some of the worst I have seen, which implies that the equity market does know what's about to come and they are using this time to take full advantage of it. 

As I have relayed to a few of you, I use to get trading research papers from a well known large Wall Street investment bank via a person close to me working there. I thought they would provide a huge edge, but nothing in the papers made any sense, the investments they were buying or selling were not moving and I chalked them up as useless until I stumbled upon them a few months later, then everything made sense. The point being, Wall Street works a lot further in advance then you would imagine.

Quick Market Update

I checked a little further in to those triangles...

 DIA

 QQQ

SPY

Their clear enough not to need annotations.

Triangle

The main averages all have a small triangle, similar to this one in the SPY

Although volume is wrong for a consolidation at least in the SPY version, I suspect this triangle will mean something as whenever volatility pinches like this, it typically produces directional moves.