ES Futures

Not much to report on the ES futures front, so far they're trading in about  2.5 point range, very tight! NASDAQ futures are nearly a carbon copy of S&P futures.

I'm wondering if the PPT is active, not that you can tell much from this very thin market with no Treasuries or other important markets open, but the tight range thus far is interesting as is the seeming defense of $1.29 in the EUR/USD and so was the close of ES this morning with the first positive divergence of the entire night right before the close, enough to lift the futures over the $1400 level.

Even with the market closed, we might just see something VERY interesting in the a.m., possibly the PPT in action straight from 33 Liberty Street.

Overnight Session in ES begins

It looks like we'll have an overnight session that will end again as it did today at 9:15 a.m. tomorrow morning. I'll send out updates if anything interesting happens.

When the market opens, our UNG long should look great

Not everything is closed for trade today, such as the Natural Gas Futures.

As most of you know, UNG has been a long-term long position we noticed when it was still moving down and no one wanted to touch it, that gave us an edge in getting in at some very cheap prices with most of us at a profit of at least +20-25% and UNG hasn't even started to move like we believe it will.

UNG's long term leading positive divergence, essentially still in stage 1 waiting for stage 2 mark-up.


This morning however, Natural Gas Futures were off to a nice start and remain so this afternoon.

 This leading positive divergence in 3C this morning looked good for Natural Gas futures and shortly after it formed, NG shot up, but that's only part of the story.

Here's NG opening Futures gap up for the start of the new week, about a +12% gain!

Congratulations to UNG longs, patience is really paying in this one.

Closing S&P and NASDAQ E-mini Futures

Here's the 9:15 a.m. EDT closing look at ES and NQ (1 min 3C).

 The first positive divergence in ES since it opened yesterday, price responded to gain +5.75 points from the low, and off -4.25 points from Friday's 4 p.m. mark.

This morning was also the first positive 3C divergence in NQ since Friday's close, NQ is down 17 points from Friday 4 p.m. EDT, it gained 10 points from this morning's lows.

ES Update

Only about 7 minutes left, the ES Futures exchange "may" open at 6 pm tonight, the US markets themselves (NYSE/NASDAQ) "may" be closed tomorrow, we should hear earlier today than yesterday.

ES did show the first positive 3C divergence since it opened last night just this morning, which it has reacted to.

 Friday's close with a negative divergence, in green the European open... cont...

The EU open and at 7:30 a positive divergence with the market heading higher, moving about 6 points away from Friday's 4  pm close.

Just About Everything Shut-ES still open for 20 minutes

Last night the open call out traders of the NYSE were told they'd be shut down today and only algos would trade, then algos were shut down, then the NASDAQ, CME will shut down NYMEX and Futures in stock indices will close at 9:15 a.m. EDT.

Trading may open at 6 p.m. for CME, NYSE may even be closed tomorrow.

Here's ES which is down about 7 points since Friday's close.

Although we've seen 7 points lost overnight, just before ES closes, it has a positive divergence just starting.

I'll be reporting through the day here and there as things develop.

Enjoy your day, if you are in the Tri-State area, be safe.

The Floor of the NYSE will be silent tomorrow

There are few things that can quiet the floor of the NYSE, but Hurricane Sandy has done just that for tomorrow. Only the buzz of hard-drive running algos will be heard on the NYSE, the NASDAQ is unaffected.

Algo's will be running the NYSE tomorrow.

So far tonight, there's not much movement, the EUR/USD opened the week slightly down, not much though and ES is in similar shape, nothing really worth getting excited over right now.

 EUR/USD Forex opening this week.

And below, although we didn't see anything from Sandy in the way of winds, we did see some monster surf in my area where the swell made it through the Bahamas at the perfect angle, 2 cities south of us and the surf was half the size.

This weekend we saw 30 foot waves, no one was out in this craziness. We also lost about 75 yards of beach at a depth of about 6 feet over miles and miles of beach, in essence there is no beach left.

This is about a 15 footer.

More to come as it develops.

AAPL Not in a Place to Scare Shorts

In fact it's in a place shorts would be likely to pile on, I'll show you. There's also an interesting candle that looks like it will hold in to the close.

 There was some volume as AAPL crossed the $600 level as well as the intraday support level, most likely new or short term shorts covering.

 It's at the resistance of the triangle that shorts are divided from happy to scared, right below the resistance area they are happy as it appears resistance was tested and failed offering a better short entry, this is very old school Technical Analysis, as you saw with AMZN today, these levels are largely shaken out by moving price through the level and getting shorts to cover.

 I'm not sure if this daily closing candle holds up, but if it does, it's a reversal hammer on volume which makes it a high probability reversal signal.

 The short term 1 min chart shows a negative divergence at resistance in AAPL, this may be retail shorts, it may be for show to gain their confidence on a failed test.

 The 3 min chart looks nearly the mirror opposite of price today, that is a divergence and a positive one for AAPL as the 3 min chart saw the highest move at the lowest move in AAPL, there was plenty of volume/supply to accumulate at very favorable prices if you are running a shakeout move to the upside.

The 5 min chart is similar in its divergence.

There are several different ways this could play out Monday, perhaps  early weakness locking in more shorts, perhaps a gap up through resistance causing a short covering move off the open. All I can tell you is the probabilities with these positive divergences at break down/head fake areas are very high for an upside reversal.

Leading Indicators

Through all of this volatility, chop, intraday and day to day emotion a few things seem to be standing as fact: the range we were looking for early this week developed; several head fake moves that we would expect before a reversal in the averages and some key stocks took place; despite horrible earnings and really bad after hours reactions, the 3C signals that were strong on stocks like AMZN were vindicated so hopefully we'll see the rest of them move as they are hinting they will.

Stepping back from the day to day and intraday, the leading indicators for this week have all held up as did the longer term 3C charts.

 FCT as a leading indicator vs the SPX (all comparisons are to the SPX in green) is leading positive during this week's range.

 Yields are leading positive at this week's range area.

 The $AUD is also leading positive at this week's range or what might be considered the pivot.

 The Euro is also leading positive

 HYG Credit is the same

 As is junk credit.

In to the EOD today the defensive sectors are falling off, Discretionary, Tech and the momentum packed Basic Materials sector are all moving in to rotation.

Market Update

Here's both the short term charts for the averages and the longer term which essentially are about the size needed for the shakeout move we are looking for to complete this transition.

 DIA 1 min is still in line

 DIA 15 min has a longer relative positive divergence from the 10th/11th and a leading positive through this week with another move higher today

 IWM 1 min intraday negative which could also cause a consolidation.

 IWM 30 min leading positive.

 QQQ 1 min negative

 QQQ 30 min relative and leading positive this week

 SPY 1 min negative intraday

 It hasn't reached the 2 min chart so it looks like it's just an intraday signal.

 SPY 15 min leading positive, the 30 min is positive as well.