Daily Wrap Coming

Thanks for your understanding, I had to take mom to get 6 epidurals for back pain and a couple of days ago on Dr. Oz, they were talking about how dangerous they were so she was a little worried, I didn't want her to be alone and the Wi-fi hot spot I found wasn't working so I decided to stay with her through the procedure.

I'll have the closing wrap up soon, I have all the charts, it was a very interesting day and you really can't judge it until you see all the details, some really interesting things happened, none of which change anything, we did take some profits in the AAPL Puts today, judging by the close, it was the right thing to do and we can always open new ones, but that was a decent little gain and we have the core position started as well.

I was surprised to see our options tracking portfolio's rank for the month of May considering we have mostly been just setting up our positions, not closing them yet and taking profits, but still we are in the top 1.5% of all portfolios for May and this isn't a model portfolio, this is just a tracking portfolio of all positions mentioned as trade ideas that positions were opened.

Options Tracking Portfolio at a 27.76% return for May already vs the SPX's 3.22%

This puts our tracking portfolio in the top 1.5% of more than 1000 (1073) total portfolios, not bad considering we are setting positions up.

The wrap will be out shortly and I'll be working on a new scan based on my Custom Demark inspired indicator, I think now is a perfect time to use an indicator like this to scan for ideas that we can then narrow down.

Update

I'm not going to be able to update until after the close, but what I have seen and haven't updated yet are leading indicators. HYG had extreme distribution, TLT was accumulating suggesting a head fake and all of the divergences I want to see on the layout were present, from extreme dislocations in currencies, credit ,rates, etc. are all what I'm looking for. I'll show you these  when I get back. I feel pretty good about positioning, continuing to accumulate equity longs and put positions.

I also noticed today did look like an op ex day with slight 3c adjustments. TLT had to be pushed down to keep the market from dumping as bad as HYG  is and that's extremely important. I'll update as soon as I get back, but there's not much to do today that hasn't already been done. Thanks for your understanding.

***PERSONAL UPDATE

I just got a call that I need to take my mother to the doctors, she needs an epidural for back pain and will be under sedation so she can't drive. I will have my computer with me and will be outside a wi-fi hot spot so I will continue updating, we're about 15 mins from the Doctor's.

AAPL P/L and Plan

For now AAPL downside momentum looks to have faded, I fear the 3 p.m. op-ex pin (when it's largely over because most contracts are settled by then).

I plan on keeping the AAPL Short Equity Position, this is my play on the longer term AAPL signal. I'll consider entering new AAPL option positions if the trade comes to us and looks good.

The P/L (although the site is a bit screwy at the moment) is decent considering these were opened Wednesday around noon-so about a 2 day trade

Being the RT hadn't updated at the time of the sale, the cost as you see below from Wednesday was $23.55, the fill was $29.57 for a +25.6% gain, pretty close to the RT above at 25.48%-not bad for a quick trade in this environment.

Closing AAPL June 22, $475 Put

Went With IWM June 22 $98 Puts

I may use these for a shorter term trade, it depends on the momentum, but this looks like a good place for an IWM short of some type for at least a momentum trade

Opening June IWM Puts, in the Money-Monthly Expiration

IWM intraday is seeing negative divergences so are the futures.

SRTY or TWM are 3 and 2 x leveraged short ETFs that are an equity way to play IWM short with some leverage. This is based on the bigger picture which is coming next in Leading Indicators.

I may even consider an IWM equity short or TZA long here for the longer trend

 Intraday IWM 1 min

Intraday 2 min leading negative

Futures Update and The Big Picture

When you find a lot of objective data that gives you an edge, you don't ignore it no matter what price does to try to shake you off the trail (Risk management is important to do this). Well over a month ago I wrote about what I thought would be the 2 biggest issues in assets to effect the big picture, the $USD which I said would be bought as more and more countries enter the currency wars by devaluing like Japan did, since we have had 3 Central banks in Asia cut in 24 hours!

I also said the Yen would be key, it has been. This is not at all my opinion, this is based on objective facts.

Short term intraday Index futures are like the SPY 1 min chart, positive intraday, but this is the big picture that really matters and is not often seen.

*Remember 3C in futures is much stronger at the same timeframe (15 min ES is much stronger than 15 min SPY) as a signal.

 This is the 15 min distribution in ES, not only is the distribution exceptionally clear, but so is the topping or reversal "PROCESS".

This is the TF (Russell 2000 futures) 15 min chart, Also LEADING NEGATIVE in a big way.

The NQ (NASDAQ 100 futures) leading negative divergence

And the 15 min NQ chart.

One of the themes in my "Currency Crisis " articles was a massive $USD base/accumulation as you know, risk assets including the market move opposite the $USD, as does oil most specifically-I like our recent oil shorts a lot.

 This 4 hour $USDX futures chart  shows "A" the second bottom of the "W" base and the rise off that bottom to the breakout line, at the breakout line it pulled back at "B" as UNG recently did in a similar situation which is good because after the last run up, the $USd needs to regroup, shake out weak longs and get ready for its move to a new breakout and stage 2 mark-up.

I have been telling you that the pullback at "B" is ending, "C" shows 4 hour positive divergences suggesting this is true, this is a major problem for the market and it's right around the corner.

This is the $US Dollar Index with the "W" base at the yellow bar and the pullback at the red bar, the accumulation in the base is clear, I decided to use Don Worden's Money Stream to give you another accumulation/distribution indicator's out;look. Don Worden is the creator of all money flow indicators with his TICK Volume, it was the predecessor of OBV and every other money flow indicator and used by Wall Street when he created them in the 60's, Money Stream is his crowning achievement, it obviously confirms 3C.


This is a 60 min 3C chart of the $USD, here you can see the reversal and accumulation of the pullback area. Soon the $USD will be breaking out to stage 2 mark-up. Just remember the $USD moves opposite the market, or rather CAUSES the market to move opposite it and in my view, is a reflection of Wall Street discounting the future as they believe the F_E_D will back off QE, which would send the Dollar higher as well as all of this world wide currency devaluation.

Another Email Answer Providing a Concept

I've already mentioned this to you, but I think sometimes people forget things like this in the heat of so much emotional back and forth that comes with increasing volatility.
'
The email was simply about the choppiness of the market today, yet the range is narrow, it seems like an op-ex move thus far, as the day wears on and more contracts are closed, the market becomes less restricted by max pain and starts to move on its own, usually by 3 p.m.

My response was this, a reminder to all...

"This is the volatility I've mentioned, it will continue to increase, it's a sign of bad things for the market, but it will go both ways, the one thing Wall Street DOES NOT WANT, is for ANYONE to be in one their trade when it moves, they want everyone shaken out and chasing the trade, that's how they make their money, not by having retail move with them as we try to do (using 3C signals to follow their actions)."

Quick Market Update

I'm jumping to Leading Indicators analysis, but before I do a quick market update, the SPY is the example as the averages are all similar and the theme is the same.

 1 min is intraday movement, this is positive


5 min is institutional, this is leading negative, I also included short term TSV 18 and long term TSV 50, both also showing distribution. TSV-especially 50-I think I'm the only one that uses a setting that long, is great for the underlying TREND, it's not nearly as good as 3C for specific signals.

So intraday bounce-look for opportunities like AAPL, but in to that I'm sure we'll see distribution.