Monday, March 7, 2011

Tracking a Bellwether or just being vindictive?

OK, so I'm a little upset with my Macbook Pro today, but I wouldn't send you all bad information because of my laptop troubles. Take a look at AAP, last week I covered a few market Bellwethers and AAPL was one that wasn't looking too good. Today it's showing some signs of a reversal to the downside.

You know what I've said about market reversals, we almost always get a head fake before the event and that's why equities that have already shown a top and a head fake are among my favorite shorts as they are well into the process. The head fakes (in AAPL's case or any other stock that's been in an uptrend and is topping) serve to trap longs and allow locals to go short, which usually results in a quick move to the downside. When patterns fail, they tend to fall fast. Just look at the first AAPL head fake to the upside on a new breakout high in the first red box and then the subsequent fast move down. Today we saw another, a new high n the current leg up that failed off the opening gap up-this was also a gap resistance zone which makes it even more important.

Here on the 60 min. chart which is a very serious time frame for the bigger trend, we see 3C called the first breakout a failed breakout as it formed a 60 min negative divergence. Today's gap up has already made it to the 60 min chart in the form of a negative divergence. This is not good for AAPL and considering its weighting on the NASDAQ 100-it isn't good for the NAS or the QQQQ, you could also say the market in general.

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