Monday, March 7, 2011

FAZ/XLF

This trade seems to have come about faster then some of the others, I think it's because of sentiment in the financial sector has changed so quickly. Remember last weekends "slew of bad news" all released when the market was closed over the weekend. Here's FAZ and XLF (it's inverse ETF ) for comparison.

FAZ daily chart, there's some resistance overhead at the lighter red trendlines-closing resistance and intraday highs. A Move above these should start FAZ on a decent leg up, although it's already started moving. The white trendline is a long signal and the arrow is the signal candle so once price moved above the high of the signal candle, this became a swing long entry, meaning the trade could be entered here and now with a stop just below $39 at the red thicker trendline (AVOID WHOLE NUMBERS FOR STOPS).
The daily FAZ chart is going into a positive leading divergence.

As for FAZ's inverse ETF, XLF-You can see the ascending wedge which was the first sign things were coming apart. Since then it's broken down on good volume.

The hourly chart tells the story and confirms price action. There was distribution into that wedge I mentioned and since then, even though XLF is holding at support without making a new low, 3C continues lower. Not good for financials, but it does look good for FAZ which is a leveraged inverse (bear ETF) on financials.

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