Monday, March 7, 2011

Tomorrow's outlook

Today has been a pretty bad rout in the market with the averages losing from 1 to 2% (about). The 3C 1 min chart is in line and suggests we may see some follow through to the upside tomorrow-at least in the morning. There are several averages that are at risk for a 1-day overbought situation, we won't know what the price/volume relationship is until after the close, but if it's dominant, then the chances of a 1-day oversold condition are good. I'd rather see the market more moderate in it's decline and be able to sustain a longer leg down.
The fact is we saw a 1-day oversold last week that led to the bounce and a 1-day overbought. The market breaks down when we get follow through selling two-three days in a row, until then, we get that top volatility I mentioned. So as of now, I'm leaning toward more volatility short term. I don't see strong evidence supporting a continuation/follow through downside move, which is great for anyone who wants to add shorts at a better risk/entry level.

In any case, it's hard to say when the market follows through on the downside, it could be any day with world events, but as far a what I'm seeing RIGHT NOW, I don't see tomorrow as another 1-2% down day, not to say it won't be down or relatively neutral. We are looking for that edge, we can only go on what we see, otherwise we are gambling/guessing. I'll keep an eye on it through the close for developments.

No comments: