Monday, April 11, 2011

AAPL

We watch AAPL a lot, whether trading it or just because it has so much influence on the market. AAPL is now heading toward a crucial inflection point as earnings season kicks off tonight with AA.

 Linear Regression shows a well defined downtrend in AAPL for most of the year, note how it's headed for the lower channel and possibly the 3rd major lower low putting AAPL into a possible primary downtrend.

 The daily chart was pretty unambiguous about the distribution into the top, what's perhaps more striking is the current leading negative divergence in both 3C and Money Stream.

 On the 60 min chart, note how sharp the reversals in AAPL were.

 The 30 min chart confirms the 60 minute with a little more detail.

 On the 15 min chart we see the tricks of the market, each negative divergence/reversal happened AFTER a false breakout (in the red boxes), again, these false breakouts serve as a primer to get the reversal moving under its own power as longs sell at a loss increasing supply.

The 1 min chart has been very clearly negative, both in 3C and MS, it seems like the bottom channel is a magnet drawing AAPL toward it. What happens there and the severity of any possible moves could have major implications for the NASDAQ 100 and the broader market. I think AAPL is one of the reasons the NASDAQ is underperforming the other averages today.

If you are interested in trading AAPL, I'd wait to see what happens at that bottom channel, a bounce would be a welcomed set up.

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