Monday, April 11, 2011

DRYS

This may be a short trade worth looking into if we get the proper set up.

Here's the Baltic Dry Shipping Rates, normally it's quite volatile, however this index has been falling for quite some time which is in itself an indication of global shipping demand of dry goods. Even if we consider there are more dry ships available and attribute the fall in prices to that, it's still not good for a shipping company. If we add the increased cost of fuel, it's even worse. This is a sector that could be a prime candidate for a margin squeeze.

 Here's DRYS' daily chart, which shows it has broken below a top and while moving somewhat laterally, has been making some lower lows. The current price placement compared to a few weeks ago could set this up for a nice false breakout/reversal to the downside which could decisively break that lower trendline.

 Here's the distribution on the first test of resistance (far left), then distribution a few weeks ago and apparent distribution on this bounce.

 This 1 min chart is showing a minor positive divergence developing which could be the key to the trade's setup.

 If we can get a move into or above the white rectangle, it's highly likely it would be a false move and an excellent area to short DRYS with minimal risk.

Here's the long term Trend Chanel, so far, it is in a downtrend.

Remember, there's two possible setups, the outright break of the lower trendline on the daily chart or a false breakout mentioned just above. 

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