Monday, April 11, 2011

EARNINGS ARE A BLAST!

AA just kicked off earnings season and if you just looked at the headlines, you'd think they beat with "Record this and that" or "best since xyz", the fact is they missed on several crucial numbers: $100 million dollar miss to revenue, EBITDA of $955 million misses by $60 million, Cap-ex of $204 mm is below consensus of $475m.

Other then that, everything is rosy and I just can't seem to follow the AH trade as it first seemed to be halted, then Yahoo showed AA trading up in AH and now from what I see on my screen, they are trading down significantly around $17.15 (down about -3.2%).

Here are the 3C charts, which are largely negative, there's one chart that kept me from calling this  short earnings play, the 15 min, which I don't know if it's an anomaly or caught between a couple of cycles. Please do refer to the previous chart I posted asking and showing some evidence of a possible major top in AA.

So far the market is down a bit in AH, but has largely taken this miss in stride.

 The bid/ask in blue at the right around the $17.20 area currently.

 The hourly 3C chart is crushingly horrid. Note the final divergence on a false breakout play (again, this is a sign of the times, the market does this so often that it's nearly predictable 85% of the time).

 The 30 min chart, not looking good either.

 Here's the monkey wrench-the 15 min chart, if it were not for this chart, I'd have called a short earnings play on AA.

 The 5 min and 1 min below are pretty much in line with price and insignificant.



So, we'll see what the market thinks of guidance in the days to come (it usually takes a few days for all the games to pass and to get a true feel for what AA will be doing). This is not a great start for the earnings season, but it's one company so we can't read too much into it by itself.

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