COULD TLT BE TELEGRAPHING?

A recent article I read suggested Bill Gross is either coming out and blasting Bernanke's policies like never before or " is engaging in the most acute case of reverse psychology ever seen". In the past, interviews Gross has given a day before Fed policy statements have seemed to indicate that he was in the loop on Fed policy. So the question is valid and very interesting. It wouldn't be the first time a well respected manager ha misled the public for their own gain. On the other hand, his actions ( at last tally) seem to fit with his words.


I talked with a member about examples of inverse H&S bottoms and suggested looking at TLT, I found the chart to be interesting as well.


Take a look

 This look a lot like the classic H&S bottom or inverse H&S, from here upside volume would have to pick up.

 The daily 3C chart seems to like this as a significant base.


When the S&P-500 is overlaid (red), an inverse relationship becomes evident. So could TLT be telegraphing the Fed's next move?


One thing to be aware of is the initial knee jerk reaction to Fed policy statements. It hasn't been as pronounced as of late, but the Fed's policy directives haven't exactly been surprising lately either. Something feel different about tomorrow for many reasons I outlined already.  In any case, 12:30 we'll know what the policy directive to the NY Fed will be. At 2:15 Bernanke will hold the first post policy press conference ever for a Fed chairman, that alone is a big deal and suggests tomorrow's policy or comments to follow, will contain some element that will take us off the Fed's predictable path of late.