SPY Update

In yesterday's market update I had the following to say about the negative 1 min divergence around 2:30

"The acc/dist cycle is very much like the 4 market stages in a cycle, whether it be intraday, a swing pattern or a Primary trend. Those stages are 1) accumulation, 2) mark-up, 3) distribution, 4) decline. When watching 3C, as I showed in an earlier post on the SPY, we saw the accumulation, the mark up period when prices rise and 3C confirms the uptrend, distribution when we see the negative divergences, typically starts when the market is still rising and then a reversal. Distribution and accumulation occur most often in a laterally trending market as we can see the least two days. The recent trend before a reversal of a cycle has been a false breakout, whether it be a false breakout to the downside kicking off a move up as seen in the SPY chart I featured earlier, or a false breakout to the upside before a reversal. As I mentioned, the SPY is close enough to pull off a false breakout, whether it does or not, I can't say other then to watch the 1/5 min 3C charts. If the negative divergence worsens, but price fails to fall, then it's more likely we'll see that false breakout, what is happening is distribution which can also be interpreted as short selling. If the market prices fall in response to the negative divergences, the false upside breakout becomes less likely."

 You can see yesterday the market didn't have far to go at all to pull off a breakout.

As for what I said above, you can see 3C continued trending down in the afternoon , price remained lateral increasing the chances of a false breakout. Today's 3C action has been very negative in a leading negative divergence. I'd think it would be possible to keep the market above support until the FOMC meeting, "possible", is it likely? Common sense would tell me yes, but the readings on 3C don't seem to agree with common sense. I'm going to look at the market's breadth next.