Tuesday, December 6, 2011

AAPL

I always keep an eye on AAPL, it's a great consumer sentiment indicator and it's the most heavily weighted stock on the NASDAQ 100, AAPL can literally move the NASDAQ from red to green like no other NASDAQ component. So here's the latest update for AAPL which is looking toppy.

 This is a possible AAPL Broadening top

 However, I think a H&S top is more appropriate and volume largely confirms the h&S top. For confirmation, I have created a cumulative volume indicator so you can see volume's trend vs. price. In a healthy stock, volume rises and thus the line should rise with rising prices and contracts when price falls. To authenticate a H&S top you look for the exact opposite, falling volume in to rallies and increasing volume on declines, hopefully the cumulative volume line helps you see.

I have highlighted the chart above in red all of the places in which volume confirms a H&S top.


 The long term linear regression channel is showing volatility now that is typical of a top

 This is the most recent bounce on a 15 min 3C chart showing accumulation, confirmation in green or mark up and a negative divergence or distribution in red, a complete cycle.

 The 30 min chart shows a leading negative divergence now and AAPL being halted today at resistance from yesterday's close.

 The hourly 3C chart is also leading negative.

 The daily 3C chart looks very typical of a top with a leading negative divergence.

 MoneyStream also confirms what 3C shows with the first negative divergence in almost 3 years, right around the H&S top area.

Here's a 200 day moving average and if there's any doubt as to whether it's starting to roll over, I added a rate of change indicator to the moving average, you can clearly see it has lost momentum and is starting to turn down. The 200 ma has also acted as good support so if you have AAPL on your short watchlist, keep an eye on price and that moving average.

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