Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Wondering why the market is up?

And why XLF broke out right after my last post?

It's the FT's 3 p.m. rumor...

Now the plan is to let the EFSF and the new bailout mechanism that was supposed to replace the EFSF, the ESM (confusing I know), to run side by side. The problem that remains, the ESM which is supposed to be $500 billion is not expected to come online with the $500 billions, but they hope it can borrow from the ECB and possibly other organizations.

I'm so far not really seeing how this is much different then the leveraged EFSF of the last "LAST CHANCE TO SAVE EUROPE" summit. The EFSF was supposed to be leveraged up to a trillion+ Euros, but the only and most noteworthy bond issuance by the EFSF was scheduled for a mere $10 billion Euros, once the banks let the EU know there was no appetite for that amount, they reduced it to $3 billion Euros and even at that level, the auction only looked successful because the underwriters retained nearly half of the bonds issued. In other words, they were going for a trillion plus and couldn't credibly raise $3 billion!

How this time is different, I don't know except that the ESM might be able to borrow from the European Central Bank, which has been opposed by Germany, but somehow this is supposed to be more palatable because of treaty based mechanism, but even the article which so far is a rumor, is fair in saying that this is all very controversial.

Europe keeps looking for Hank Paulson's 3 page proposal for a Bazooka, and the EU keeps coming up with pellet guns. At some point the world is just going to have to realize that if these problems were solvable, they would have been solved long ago and as I said in 2007 in what I expected, before any of this started in earnest, I said in the 5 part video series that it's like having food poisoning and sometimes the only way to feel better is to go ahead and throw up all the toxins, yes it is unpleasant, yes it will be difficult, but we need a new start and propping up failing/failed banks and countries is just prolonging the inevitable and making the suffering all the worse.

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