Tuesday, January 3, 2012

URRE CHANGES

URRE is showing a couple of notable changes in character.

 First the downside momentum seems to be morphing in to what may be a rounding bottom. Last Friday we saw a small bodied star candle on heaver volume, this is typical at reversal areas, call it micro capitulation. Today URRE gained over 8% on increasing volume, this is the kind of increase I like to see,  a huge green volume spike at this point would make me suspicious of churning activity.

 The 5 min chart carved out a clear positive divergence that led to today's move, Friday's star also saw lows that broke below recent lows (probable downside-bullish head fake). If you look at the accumulation period on the 5 min chart, it gains traction around the 23rd of December, meaning that the average accumulated position would be somewhere around $.75. A move today of 8% to $.78 wouldn't be worth running a cycle and besides that, the 1 min chart confirmed today, no distribution evident in today's move up. I would think URRE would just be getting ready to enter the mark up period, so there presumably would be some decent upside before the distribution phase even began.

 Over all, the 15 min chart which is much more important shows an even wider accumulation range from  $.82-$.72 so if we simply average that for a rough estimate, we can assume that the accumulated position would be around $.77, meaning today's move is barely out of the accumulation range and not even in the mark up phase yet.

Even more interesting is the daily hart, now that we are getting alignment in multiple timeframes, the daily hart's leading position becomes important. I'm split as to whether this is a separate accumulation cycle or whether this is part of a larger cycle that started back in October when URRE rallied over 150%. I'm leaning toward a longer cycle in which the rally had to be killed to send URRE back to lows that were worth buying, so this may indeed be one larger cycle, which would have much more bullish implications.

We also have a daily/hourly buy signal on my custom DM indicator.
 Note the last time we had a daily buy signal, we got the 150+% rally.

The hourly signal landed just about where the head fake on Friday would have occurred.

The 15 min MoneyStream also likes URRE hear gong first positive and then leading positive, it is VERY rare to see MS signals in the first place, but even more so on lower priced stocks and especially on intraday charts. It should be noted that 3C and MS do the same thing, look for accumulation and distribution, however they are coded totally differently so for them to arrive at the same signal is noteworthy.

Lets see if we get some follow through tomorrow, that would be a good sign.

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