Tuesday, January 3, 2012

AMZN Worth the Wait...

As you know, AMZN has been on the short ideas watchlist and there have been some moments in which I've really wanted to short AMZN, but have refrained waiting for the trade to come to us, it is starting to do that.


 The AMZN long term Linear Regression Channel

 A pretty clear top in AMZN.

 A bearish breakaway gap in AMZN, the market has been diligent about filling gaps, this break away gap left open is a bad sign for AMZN

 Worst of all, a sharp leading negative divergence on the daily chart, this is about as bad as it gets.

 AMZN short term has a positive divergence and given it just broke support, it needed this bounce above support as we talked about last night in the market's recent behavior in these situations.

 However, even as it bounces, the short term 3C shows even the bounce is seeing distribution as we would like to see.

The daily Trend Channel has held the entire downtrend since the highs of the top formation. I would guess it will not bounce above the upper trend channel, that may be an area worth taking a closer look at AMZN.

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