Thursday, March 1, 2012

Looking for the next GLD Trade

Yesterday I closed the Puts I opened last week in GLD on what I suspected was a head fake move, it payed off big time.

Here is the trade just before closing yesterday around 3 p.m. in the WOWS Options Model Portfolio


 March $173 Puts bought for $2.04 and sold for $5.30 for a 211% gain which was closer to 215% by the time it was closed. This trade took about 4 days.

Yesterday I received a lot of emails from people looking to buy puts in GLD, I encouraged everyone to wait for a bounce as a bounce was most likely. There is a possible Long trade on the bounce, but it is more risky.

 This candlestick configuration suggests a reversal to the upside, however there are several patterns that would signal a bearish continuation pattern that I will list at the end of the post. A test of the $170 area is a likely outcome and maybe then some.

 Here's the short term 3C chart from yesterday suggesting a bounce and thus my reason for taking profits yesterday and suggesting members wait before entering a short or buying puts.

 The 5 min chart also shows a relative positive divergence.

And another relative positive divergence on the 15 min chart.

Given today's opening, I think the most likely candlestick pattern would be some variation of "Falling 3 Methods"



Note however that there can be more then 3 rising candles in this formation. We'll keep an eye on 3C as we move forward for timing hints.

No comments: