AAPL Update

I am not a fan of trading earnings UNLESS we have a VERY strong 3C signal that suggests there's a leak, we've seen it many times before. In some cases, like when we hit GOOG several quarters back, the divergences didn't show until the last 15 minutes of trade before the close and earnings.

 Here are the trendlines we've been working from, the $600 psychological centennial mark, broken support in the $595 area, broken support in the $575 area. Yesterday like much of the rest of the market, AAPL put in a hammer which is the start of a reversal, these candlestick signals like a hammer carry no price target implication, it just shows us downside momentum is fading, leaving the door open to a reversal. Thus far AAPL hasn't done much, but it hasn't broken below yesterday's hammer support at $556.60-ish. There's nothing about the intraday PRICE trade that would nullify that hammer as of yet, in fact the open below yesterday's close "could" put in a very bullish engulfing candle later in the day.

 Cleaning up the trendlines to what is probably the most important, the $575 area seems to be where a small H&S-like top formed. We have a break below, the market's trend has been to shake these out with a break back above, but I would say AAPL is a special case.

 It's important not to lose sight of the bigger picture on a weekly chart, AAPL's parabolic move up, these almost always end badly with a parabolic move straight back down you can see it has already started. However a couple of days of potential upside will not upset the picture depicted on this weekly chart. As you know, last week I entered an AAPL equity short, but placed a fat finger trade and forgot to change the order from the default buy to short, so I'm still without any longer term coverage in AAPL. However if WMT can do what it did with that volatility shakeout, APPL certainly can't be counted out just yet, even though I really wish I had gotten that order correct.

 So far there's no interesting signals on the short term charts, they are in line with AAPL's move down which for 3C is considered trend confirmation.

 The 2 min chart shows the same

 As does the 5 min, but the 5 min did put in a curious strong leading positive, I believe it is the basis of what we see on the 15 min chart which is contradicting price.

 This is a decent leading positive divergence on a fairly strong timeframe, it is not a huge leading positive, but it is the only chart thus far giving a contradictory signal.

Please though, whatever happens in AAPL, keep in mind how deeply leading negative the 60 min chart is, this fits perfectly with the parabolic move on the weekly chart. If AAPL does manage a huge move up, I'll be looking to sell short in to it for as long as I can.