Tuesday, April 24, 2012

WMT Follow Up

I mentioned we would look at WMT as it has been a trade some of you have taken.

 Although WMT did look to fill the gap it also made a typical "Kiss the channel" good bye move, which never just kiss the channel, but almost always re-enter the channel, causing traders to doubt whether the channel is a legitimate pattern. These patterns are almost always legitimate, they just see extreme head fake/volatility shakeouts. If this were 2 months ago, the volatility would not have allowed WMT to move so far.

 WMT 60 min chart shows this was a head fake move the entire time, we started shorting in mid-March around $61, again the draw down on a long term position (which I don't recommend leverage on) would have been minimal.

WMT on a 5 min chart shows the smaller accumulation period to send it higher, note distribution almost immediately after.

We may still see volatility in WMT as long a market volatility stays high, but the weakness in this stock when looking at the larges position is impressive.

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