Wednesday, June 20, 2012

USO Update

I was watching USO for a possible trade on the EIA report today, it looks like it may be setting up for a long trade.

This recent descending wedge is a pattern we've been seeing a lot lately, there have been so good head fake moves off these. Today we saw the downside move that technical traders expect from the price pattern, so the question is, is it setting up  bear trap?


 I know the EIA report showed a build, but the move today seemed excessive, even vs the $USD  it seemed excessive, that is unless someone wanted to manipulate the pattern to set a bear trap.

If the EIA report was leaked, this negative divergence on the 5 min chart makes sense, if it wasn't, the probability of a bear trap being set goes up. Either way, USO was working on a positive divergence all afternoon as it was near it's lows on the day. This is one we need to keep an eye on for a quick trade; I think the last set up similar to this in GLD yielded about 200% in a day or two on some call options.

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