Wednesday, June 20, 2012

GLD Update and possible explanation

As you may recall from yesterday's update, GLD has had a very negative divergence out to the 60 min chart suggesting some decent downside in the PM. However we also have a longer term daily chart which had been negative until recently, now showing longer term trend positive divergences. There may be a reason why...

This link to the FDIC government news explains why gold may be looking a lot better on the longer term charts/longer term trend. As a member summarized the article,

"It has been proposed by the Basil III agreement that Gold should be
accepted as a tier 1 asset, meaning that it would be as good as cash,
treasury, cash equivelants and A rated soverign debt.  Currently gold
is considered a tier 3 asset which mean it is on allowed a 50% asset
value.  It appears that either the FDIC is accepting this Basil III
recomendation of seriously considering it."

The basic charts of importance in GLD right now...

 The 60 min chart which went positive very quickly on May 30th, then saw the biggest 1 day move up in years, that move saw distribution in to the price strength and there's a significant negative divergence suggesting Gold will see downside from here. Judging by the daily chart, I would expect to se that downside accumulated and if that happens, GLD may be a worthwhile longer term long position.

Near term for those that are nimble, GLD may be worth a short as a short or using puts for a pullback move.

 Intraday the move higher is seeing a negative divergence as of 2 p.m. which is now leading negative.

This is the daily chart which has changed character quite dramatically, going from a very negative divergence at the 2011 highs to a more recent series of positive divergences at support around $148. It would be likely that a downside move would break through that support as it is becoming obvious, if there's accumulation in to that move, that would also offer a very nice long position entry in GLD.

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