Wednesday, June 20, 2012

AAPL Update

I still like AAPL for higher prices, like the market in general, I expect a pullback. As you know yesterday and today I closed all AAPL calls at a profit, I'll be looking for an opportunity to add new calls on a pullback. As for the primary trend, I continue to maintain a primary trend short position which is also at a gain.

 AAPL has formed a bullish ascending triangle right above major resistance, the price pattern is not technically correct as this is a continuation / consolidation pattern and there isn't a preceding uptrend in place before the price pattern formed. There have been some recent forays above resistance of the pattern, the candlestick pattern of the last 2 days also suggests a pullback. A deep head fake pullback would be below the triangle's support around $550, that would bring shorts back in to AAPL, if that were to happen, we'd be looking for 3C confirmation of a bear trap and that may make for an excellent long position for a sub-intermediate uptrend. If we can get a short squeeze move and higher prices, we'll be looking for 3C confirmation of distribution in to that move. In that case I would likely add some to the current equity short in place for the Primary trend. So there are two potential trades, a shorter term long which would be a set up in which the trade comes to us and a longer term short for the primary trend, again, this us a trade set up that lets the trade come to us which in either case, gives us much better price positioning, higher probabilities and significantly lower risk. Patience and the fact you don't always have to be in the market are two of your greatest advantages over Wall Street.


 The 5 min AAPL chart suggests a pullback as AAPL has gone negative in to a resistance area twice now. The fact this is a 5 min chart suggests this is more apt to be a pullback rather than a resumption of the primary downtrend or next primary leg lower.

 The 60 min chart in AAPL shows strong distribution at the March top and then a strong accumulation phase (not as strong as the distribution) which has sent AAPL higher off its lows. It has been my opinion that any accumulation in AAPL is already done and positions are already in place. I do not expect to see any significant longer term accumulation events at this time.

The Trend Channel shows where AAPL's uptrend from stopped out, a move above the red trendline to the right (top trendline) would almost certainly create a strong short squeeze in AAPL and a powerful sub-intermediate move higher. Right now I'm looking at the $560 area as a possible pullback target, but I plan on letting the market tell me.

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