Wednesday, October 17, 2012

MCP Up 5+% Today

Yesterday I updated MCP which is more of a longer term trade as it seems to be carving out a base it can launch from, it's not along the lines of a UNG style base, it's smaller, but in my opinion should be treated as a longer term trade. 

In any case, in yesterday's MCP Update I said,

" MCP's daily chart hasn't seen any damaging moves and has held up well recently in this tight triangle.

 Here's a dip below the triangle, but MCP pulls itself back up and seems to see accumulation in these areas.

And Finally based on this chart...


And the 2 min chart turning up recently, taken with the pinching triangle, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move or breakout soon. There is clear support so a head fake move before a breakout is always possible, but I don't know that MCP is attracting that much attention."

And today's update, this may not be the breakout from the base we are ultimately waiting to see or it may be if we see some follow through, but those who are long may be able to trade around this for a nice profit and enter back around the base for the larger move, we have to let the market tell us and thus far it's saying, "Fair ball", there's confirmation on the breakout with increasing volume.

 Here's the breakout move that looked so likely yesterday I had to mention it, volume isn't huge, but we don't need it to be, we need it to be higher and that is what it is. These 4-10X volume scans are insane in many cases, everyone sees the same thing and there's no edge in that.

 1 min 3C chart with a leading positive divergence yesterday afternoon going in to today and confirmation today where so many other charts are not even coming close today.

 2 min chart with the positive divergence, again when we have longer term divergences in place and the short term charts start showing big moves in 3C, I believe this is the market maker or specialist that filled a large order, knows what is going to happen and is picking up supply or dumping it (depending on the move) in advance of the move, not only because they make a market in the stock, but because at least 30% of the daily volume is the middle man trading their own account.


Finally the 45 min has been leading positive at these breaks below support, each one was accumulated, this is why I say "Don't get lost in the lines', intraday or day to day trade can really grab your attention, but quite often things are happening that price doesn't yet reflect. 

Congrats to the MCP longs, we'll keep an eye on trade management.

No comments: