There's a little more upside in FAS since I closed it, not much and not worth the risk to me, but I thought we should take a look as FAS is doing exactly what we thought and said it would do, opportunities?
For FAS/Financials we had VERY SPECIFIC expectations. The price pattern interpreted by Technical Analysis and what every trader out there is doing is as the green arrows show, an uptrend followed by a continuation/consolidation triangle followed by a breakout to the upside.
We also saw a head fake move on a break below the triangle, I mentioned we'd likely see 2 head fake moves here, 1 below and the second above. So taking a look at shorting Financials is what we wanted to do with a move ABOVE the triangle, we have that today, but shorting financials may be too early considering some of the charts suggesting the broad market has more upside, but at least we have broken in to the right area.
FAS 2 min 3C negative divergence, even though FAS moved close to about the level where it was closed after having been down, don't regret closing it at all.
The 3 min FAS chart has a very negative divergence
As does the 5 min chart. If you recall, there never was a good strong positive divergence and we didn't get involved with Financials/FAS until just before the break higher as it finally showed a positive divergence.
XLF/Financial Sector did show a better positive divergence and now is at a relative negative on a 15 min chart, not exactly what I want to short, but at least the market is moving as we expected and have been planning for.
Again, like the others at 4 hours the XLF/Financials chart is in a HUGE leading negative divergence which gives us bearish probabilities and those are the setups we want to be on the lookout for as of now. Just be a little patient and wait for the signals.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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