Wednesday, October 17, 2012

FB Update

I have to say, when the market is nearly flat or even if it was up or down big, it feels good to have a short pick down over 4% in a day and a long pick that no one would ever see coming, up 3+% the same day, that's IBM and FB I'm talking about and it' a fine example of how the market's intense correlation of the last 3 years has started changing ever since QE3 was announced (I have my beliefs as to why and a lot has to do with valuations, but that's another conversation altogether).

FB was updated yesterday , from yesterday's update:

"FB still looks fine to me as I mentioned in yesterday's update, it seems as if it is going through the "process" of a reversal (to the upside), while also building a base. FB has always moved on its own away from market correlation so it not being up with the market today is not a concern for me."

"The recent consolidation in white, this is the lateral trade that divergences often pop up in.  This is the 15 min FB chart, it looks very good where we are now."

As for today's update, FB looks a little bit ahead of itself on an intraday basis, it may be trying to wring out some of the excesses now via lateral consolidation, but otherwise, I like what I'm seeing.

 Here's the lateral consolidation on a 15 min chart, this is where we most often see institutional activity, this is why I always warn that a dull market is dangerous because more than likely, something big is happening even though price itself is very dull and we saw that something big in yesterday's update as well as many others in a large positive divergence.

 FB 15 min close up since yesterday, a great move today thus far, however FB was always meant to be a longer term position, not a trading position as FB has been working on a rather large base.

 FB 1 min chart and volume expanding on the breakout, likely some shorts were squeezed here.

 For those that are swing trading FB, the current swing, Trend Channel stop is $19.50, it will continue to move up and lock in gains so if you need an updated stop just email me.

 This is virtually the same 15 min chart posted yesterday where you can see institutional money was very active not only in the flat range, but on the way down, this is what most traders don't get, smart money buys weakness and supply and sells in to strength and demand. Most traders think this pop is smart money buying, they would never be so obvious, they were in and have been building their position for a while now, long before today's pop.

 Over all, the 5 min chart not only gave a good near term signal for the move, but the move is in line with the 5 min chart's positive divergence.


 Very short term on the 1 min, we went from confirmation to a negative divergence and consolidation, I don't think the negative action is very strong though, just enough to consolidate the gains and keep FB healthy for more upside without becoming 1-day overbought.

The 2 min chart seems to confirm this as it is perfectly in line with no hint of the 1 min negative divergence migrating over to the 2 min chart.

All in all, FB continues to develop well.

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