Closing Indications

Like Friday's quick Call position that was closed Friday and closing it was a good call because it would have been down pretty bad on a weekly with zero movement and 20% of the time gone, I just can't bring myself to take a position (call/long) today with so little support or evidence behind it. That's the danger in options, you make good money and even consistent money and then you start taking trades that shouldn't be taken because you are so use to and addicted to that kind of action, at that point it's just gambling. The Put position for the market looks good, really good, but even with that I'd really want some room and reduced risk before taking that.

Looking quickly at the end of day  move, there's no way I could take a long with charts like this out there (without going through everything)...

 Even in ES which looked the very best of all the charts, it went negative on the move toward the close.

 NASDAQ futures went negative and they weren't even really positive enough for any consideration.

 DIA positive Thursday and negative Friday through today.


 SPY leading negative through a flat range for 2 days on a 15 min chart.

QQQ showing that same Thursday short term positive divergence for a 1-day move and negative through the next two- this is the volatility (even though it's really flat in the area the last two days) that I showed you way back before it became very obvious and as we started using some different trades to take advantage of it.

So last night and last week (later in the week), I really suspected the carry trade currencies were really going to be important, the market went from no volatility and no corrections (What I called a dumb money friendly market)  which sent bullish sentiment in to the stratosphere, which is never a good indication for the market, to volatility that was huge as well as ATR compared to the first month of the year.

I didn't see any news, I did mention currencies today in the Leading Indicators update and guess what correlates with that end of day market move?

 SPY (green) vs FXY (yen in red), the Yen dumps, the market moves, if that's not enough...

Take a look at the time and the asset, the EUR/JPY, Euro moves up (so does the dollar by the way which puts pressure on the market) and the Yen moves down-market tries to move up-all the averages close in the red except for the Dow-30 at +0.35%, but apparently loosing the transports correlation as they closed red too.

I'm just hoping (sort of all though it's not that big of a deal), that the 5 min negatives today weren't the opportunity to buy weekly puts (short) on the market.

It's not a huge deal, like I said before, because a trade looks probable, doesn't mean it has a sharp edge and we did so well with the weekly puts because we had a sharp edge. So we'll see where it leads.
I'm going to update all my sorts, scans and data and come back with a closing wrap as well as an explanation of the UA trade idea.