Friday, July 12, 2013

A Likely Move For AAPL

"If" this were the end of day I'd be considering buying next week's AAPL calls (weekly) for a short term (likely day trade) move, after that, depending on what happens with signals, I "may" consider closing some or all of the AAPL long even though I still love it as a longer term (meaning swing trade + - maybe a few weeks) counter trend trade.

The only difference between now and yesterday (between definitely leaving it open and considering closing at least part) is the degree to which the 10-15 min charts go negative, if they move enough then I think the probabilities to re-enter the AAPL equity long at more favorable prices while eliminating open market risk and opportunity cost starts to make more sense and changes the dynamics.

 AAPL 3 min positive, I'd almost consider buying that weekly call for a day trade here, if we were at the close with this exact scenario, I would.

AAPL 5 min, the reason I don't is I don't know what the AAPL divergence looks like by the close, if it still looks like a good chance of a short bounce.

This is setting up a scenario though where taking some off the table in the AAPL long position might make more sense.
 The 10 min chart will almost certainly only go more negative in to any quick bounce as it allows a chance to sell/short in to strength and more demand.

The 15 min chart is now also starting to take on negative tones where it wasn't just yesterday.

This in no way changes how I feel about AAPL's upside prospects and the long equity position, it just is more of a tactical matter, strategically I still feel confident AAPL has more, much more upside to go as poart of a bear market (for AAPL) counter trend bounce.

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