Friday, July 12, 2013

Volatility UVXY / VXX & More

Yesterday what I wanted to see before taking on any "amount" of positions was the 1-3 min charts clear up, the 5 and up were already in a good place, it looked to have started in the late afternoon and seems to be continuing this morning so far (as early as it is, but it's more of a shift in momentum or change in character that is important when it comes to looking for those charts to shape up (mostly for timing). I'm still holding the recent UVXY call position.

UVXY 1 min leading positive
 It's early to be looking at these charts, but the point is the start of the movement around 2:30 is consistent and looks to be the change in short term character (timing) I've been looking for with several positions mentioned, but not yet entered, although I have an open UVXY position and have no problem sticking with it, it's the big picture that I laid out last night that I'm interested in, not a reversal/correction.

 VXX 2 min at the same time yesterday-leading positive

VXX 3 min leading positive

 VXX 5 min- as I said, the more important charts were already there...

UVXY 15 min

The point of last night's post was to point out the bigger picture and the very sudden shift in sentiment among 3C charts from really bad to a lot worse, the carry being the most noticeable "Panic-like" change..
 At this point the ES charts have grown so bad and migrated so much that the former 30 min in line chart around last week is leading negative. This is the bigger picture and suggests a lot more than a corrective pullback.

Even though they re-calibrated CONTEXT yesterday based on the closure of a carry trade and it started at zero and made it to -5, it's now back in the -25 area again that fast.

Yes, it's the bigger picture and the continuity of the charts that gives me the confidence to open the positions opened the last few days.

No comments: