Friday, July 12, 2013

AAPL Call Position Update

I'm glad I opened the position, it is up 9% as of the close, what swung me was the fact that a 5 min positive divergence would never be able to lift off to the upside, distribute and get ready to turn in an hour so that meant to me it has to reach in to Monday for AAPL.

As I have showed so many times before, however a divergence ends at the close, it almost always (90% of the time) picks up where it left off the next day, even over a weekend.

This still leaves me with a likely more difficult longer term scenario as to whether to close or hold the AAPL equity long. Bookmark this post if you like, but I can nearly guarantee the 10 and 15 min charts that were worse today than yesterday, will be worse by the time this call trade is over and that may swing me to take at least partial AAPL off the table.

For now here's the close in AAPL.
 This 10 min chart was in line and thus presented to issue as to whether to leave AAPL long equity position opened or closed or partially closed as there's a decent profit in the position entered 1% off the absolute lows (now up +7%). It's not just the 10 min either anymore, the 15 min joined the 10 min. today, any short term bounce is probable to make the negative in the two longer charts worse.

But for now, enjoy the gains. AAPL is an unique trade, it's already in a bear market and is making what I have suspected for well over a month to be a bear market rally, these are some of the strongest rallies in any kind of market.

 The 5 min chart not only has a brilliant 5 min positive, but the flat range is perfect as well as confirmation.

The 3 min sows the positive as well as the actual spark to launch at the second arrow.

I would just warn to not judge the open too quickly as the 1 min ended out of line, that makes the opening Monday likely to be a bit weaker than where we are now, but it should certainly jump,p back to good status and finish out what could be a +20-30% position easily.

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