Tuesday, December 3, 2013

VXX / UVXY Update

I cleared out the VXX December $45 call positions, but left the UVXY long equity trading position, it can handle draw down a lot better than a call expiring this month. I do intend on replacing the VXX calls, but be warned it will be one of those positions in which you have to "Hold your nose and jump" because I prefer selling in to upside momentum and buying them in to downside momentum, it's amazing how fast the profits melt away as momentum dies.

I'm keeping UVXY because I don't see a positive divegrence so strong and well put together that I fully trust it is immune from being run right over as happened in AAPL before it lost 45%.

As for the P/L for the VXX position and this was in the red pretty well not too long ago...



The first half of the position was closed as the position (for an options position) was carrying too much risk at nearly a full size core position. The P/L with a cost of $1.83 and a fill of $2.41 came in at +31.7%



The second half was closed because of the following charts, at the same cost basis and a fill of $3.50, the P/L came to +91.25% for a blended average of 61.5% or +$5,625.00 gain.

Here are the charts...
 VXX 1 min intraday negative

VXX 2 min intraday

VXX 3 min intraday

VXX 5 min intraday just going negative, notice that all I'm looking at is the intraday charts, that's because this move doesn't have anything beyond intraday and thus the reason for leaving the UVXY position alone.

IF I LOOK AT THE SAME 5 MIN CHART IN SCALE FOR VXX...

 This is what we get, there's no damage here beyond and intraday jiggle.

If we look at the same chart in UVXY just for confirmation...
We get the same strong, solid positive. I have marked a few similar 3C pullbacks in the past and what they did to price.

This is exactly why I want to re-open new VXX call positions out in January on a pullback as the premium drops, because the charts are still incredibly solid, any chance to pick these up cheaper after just having made a nice profit is just a gift as they have a much bigger move to make.


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