TLT / TBT (Long)

I have mentioned since Sunday (at minimum) that I like TBT long as a shorter term trading position on a TLT pullback. There's an open TBT long right now and I must say as cloudy as many areas of the market are, TBT right here, right now looks really interesting as a long position or even an add to, but remember that TLT is the ultimate price after a pullback, TBT long is a way to play the TLT pullback and it looks pretty darn good here. I'm not making a case for TBT (long) beyond a trade at this point.

 30-year Treasury futures 3o min leading positive divergence, this is essentially the same as TLT, so there's a solid base and longer term positive divegrence in the futures.

The 4 hour TLT chart shows the same, there's a solid longer term run of accumulation, this is more about tactical timing and an entry than anything else.

30 year Treasury futures, 15 min leading negative suggesting that there's a solid base in place, but like the GLD or SLV analysis, the shorter or less significant trend looks like a pullback before the 30 year and TLT are ready to move to the upside and those of you who have been here for at least a year know that I've been watching this develop in TLT, but have luckily been patient with the asset, we are closer to action now.

 TLT 10 year is in similar fashion showing an intermediate negative divergence suggesting a pullback, but nothing damaging to the long term base

Very short term on a 3 min chart, TLT looks like it's ready to pullback at any time. TBT is the inverse of TLT and it is also 2x leveraged. I already have a long TBT position open for this exact reason.

 TLT 1 min intraday is also negative so from a trade entry point of view, TLT looks ready to start a pullback that should lead to a nice long entry for a trend type trade long, but until then, TBT is a way to play a pullback in TLT and with 2x leverage.

TBT intraday 2 min is leading positive confirming TLT and looks ready to head higher on the TLT pullback.

TBT 3 min is also leading positive, it's in a little base area and in good position, a stop can be placed a little below recent lows and the risk ends up being very low, just don't put the stop in an obvious place.

TBT 5 min chart is in line, it may go positive, but this is why I said I'm not making a case beyond a short term trade (TBT long).

Actually taking a close look at the 5 min, there appears to be some positive migration of the 2, 3 min charts.

Closer look at TBT 5 min. It wouldn't take long for the 5 min chart to lead positive from where it is.

What I mioght do since I already have a small position started in TBT long is see if it will pullback toward or below the $77.40-$77.50 area, that's near the bottom or just under the bottom of this range.

If it does that, then I'll probably add to the position. You may want to use such a move as the deciding factor of whether you go with the trade or not. Such a move gives you a better entry, it puts you closer to your stop and lowers your risk and of course if it moves below $77.40 and there's a positive divegrence on that move, then we have a successful or highly probable head fake move which is a great timing flag.

So to demand a little more from the trade and that it comes to you is probably a good way to decide whether you want to take it or not. If it doesn't make that move, nothing lost, if it does, it's an even better looking position.

Or you might enter a half size position or partial here and add to it if it makes the move described above., that's pretty much what I'm looking at doing unless this 5 min chart starts flying.