Market Update

It's an interesting start to the day thus far considering expectations with regard to multiple trends.

I don't ever want to judge the market this early or with this little information, but I have to look at what we have and so far it looks like the initial expectations of a short duration (noise) bounce are so far in line.

Here's what I mean thus far.

 SPY 1 min intraday with yesterday's accumulation which was an ascending triangle.

So far largely in line with a little intraday noise.

 The 3 min chart still has gas in the tank, but it pretty much stops there so once the 1 min goes negative and then the 2 min, the 3 min should be the last area before the market gets ready for the second trend.

QQQ 1 min is similar, a little less confirmation

This is an example of a 5 min chart and the reason I believe it's a short duration move because we don't even have positives for the 5 min chart.

IWM in line intraday thus far.

ES 1 min is nearly perfectly in line so this move is likely just starting, we should see some distribution in to it.

As far as the more important 5 min futures charts

You can see the accumulation yesterday on what was roundly a head fake / stop run in many of the averages and asset classes.

The point here is the 5 min chart's price and divergence (positicve) have already met at regression to the mean, this means there's no leading strength, from here the 5 min chart can stay in line and continue confirming this new trend for a while (short duration), but it has no where to go but down as far as 3C is concerned unless something significant changes and I don't have any high probability case to make that something significant is going to change.

 VXX is down as it should be and as it hinted at last Friday and very clearly yesterday in relative performance, but the positive divegrence starting here is like the first initial step toward this trend making it's way from what is now stage 3 to stage 3 and eventually and likely shortly, to a stage 3 loss of momentum/top and a stage 4 decline which would officially be the start of the larger, second trend in our multiple timeframe analysis.

 VIX futures are confirming the exact same


HYG has the price move that is supporting the market move, but has lost momentum and is seeing distribution which I pointed out yesterday so Credit traders are not going along with the reide in the way that most people would assume based on price only (not that most people would even know to look here).

The TICK Index is rather weak at the +750 area, it's also very tight.

The bottom line is since Friday we have expected and prepared for a short duration bounce, I thought it would start yesterday afternoon so I was 3 hours off, but everything I see thus far is in line with expectations going back to Friday when we prepared for this move.

I'm not saying the move is done or near done, I doubt it's even halfway through the cycle, but it is proceeding almost EXACTLY as expected, meaning the character of the move is as we expected, no surprises which makes me very comfortable.

***Actually right now, since the above captures, the 1 min charts are going intraday negative which means they'll likely consolidate/pullback intraday a bit. Most of the 2 min charts are still pretty much perfectly in line so this looks like a normal intraday pullback coming, the trend to the upside (intraday) should resume after the consolidation.

We'll see if anything interesting pops up, like accumulation in to a consolidation OR DISTRIBUTION ON THE LONGER INTRADAY CHARTS.