Trade Idea: NFLX Long

I'm working on a post that should sum up what I'm seeing and I think it will hold as our analysis for a couple of days with some surprises here and there, mostly centered around relative performance, but it's not that different than yesterday's Forward Planning post, I'll have that out shortly.

As I said earlier, there will be assets that are ready before others (as shorts), the same is true for longs that are great long term or core short candidates, but are likely to see a dead cat type bounce like NFLX.

I'm going to enter a position there, probably as a equity long, I'm not crazy about the options, but I could go either way at this point, the point being, I think either will work, just depending on what you prefer whereas some longs I don't think will work without leverage.

If I go with the options, I'll likely look at April standard Calls with a strike of about $350-$355, I don't think I'd need much more time than that and I like to have about 2x more time than I think I need. I'll probably enter a long equity for the trading portfolio just as a hedge.

Here are the charts and what I see.

 Daily, even here you can see the reversal process taking shape.

Here on a 60 min chart it's much more clear after a mini capitulation event.

The intraday charts are looking like this 3 min, leading positive in a pretty aggressive, sudden way.

This is the 5 min chart, I need at least a positive out to 5 min to consider a long, this is why I didn't enter anything yesterday despite the market probabilities as outlined in yesterday's Game Plan post, as I always say, there's a difference between knowing the probabilities and a high probability, low risk trade.

This is the 10 min which is also positive in the reversal process area, but that's about as far as we go so this doesn't look like NFLX is being saved, it's still game over, I'd still short this on any price strength.

This is the 15 min chart just to put an exclamation point on the last sentence above.

Of course as a trend trade, the 15 min-4 hour charts show very clearly why it's on the short list, but in the near term I think it gets a tradable bounce.