Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Opening Indications...Weak

So far opening indications are weak, especially in the Dow/DIA. The Index futures are pretty close to in line, but the averages, a different story altogether, this may be because the Index futures have a tighter correlation to the carry trade pairs like USD/JPY and although it would be something new I learned today, it looks like the averages have a much stronger than anticipated correlation to HYG and other levers than previously thought (they also have a correlation to the futures and thus the carry trades, but HYG would be more stock specific while Index futures more carry trade specific).

 DIA non confirmation 1 min on the opening gap up.


 IWM non-confirmation which is not that surprising given there was only a 1-day 5 min positive divegrence last Thursday, this is the "Small footprint" or base I've been talking about and the reason I chose not to enter any longs, not even 1-day option call trades.

QQQ non confirmation and more deterioration, not horrible yet, but the DIA's does look pretty darn bad.

The SPY comes in second place as far as worst looking opening confirmation or in this case, non confirmation.

I'll check other assets to see if there are more surprises out there, but so far with the HYG open, this is shaping up to be more interesting than I anticipated this early.



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