Friday, June 27, 2014

A.M. Update

" I think the Bank of Japan may have pushed Central planning too far and may be seeing their QE policy blow up in their faces."
Sunday April 14th, 2013

Yesterday did have a very strange tone to it as the day before and we did have a dovish F_E_D president essentially tell the markets, "You are wrong, we are closer to hiking rates than you think". That may be the reason most US averages are down around -.10%, the Russell 2000 around -.40% (glad I grabbed SRTY yesterday), however the plunge in the USD/JPY from it's nest at $102 could be another reason.

The quote at the top is from some analysis I did when the Abe and the BOJ set off on what we could see at the time was not only QE-Zilla, but a disastrous idea in central planning.

Overnight in Japan, inflation data came in and it's up at the fastest rate since 1982 while real wages have dropped for 23 consecutive months, this apparently sending the USD/JPY significantly lower and the Nikkei as well. May CPI came in at the expected 3.7% y.o.y., but that's still the fastest rate of increase since 1991. Consumer prices in Japan are up at the fastest rate in 32 years and the consumer has pulled back to the levels of Fukushima.

So take your pick as to why US futures have been hit so hard this morning, one, the other, both, maybe even some other things that we are seeing signs of , but don't yet know about.

I do know whatever carry traders were left in USD/JPY, got hit very hard at the leverage they use on an at least 40 bps move lower overnight.

There are no significant divergences in US index futures at present so it looks like we'll be seeing red on the open.


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