Monday, June 23, 2014

MCP Update, Looks To Be Getting ready Again

Without going in to the longer term charts for MCP as I've posted them numerous times and they still look great, I'm looking at the near term charts that have led to some decent trades in MCP including a call trade on a head fake move which is what I'd like to see again to set up another call, as for the MCP equity long trading position, it's already at full-size from the last head fake move that broke under the psychological level of $2.50.

Charts...
 This flat area is a very typical accumulation (as a base) or distribution (as a top range)  price pattern, essentially a lateral range. It seems the run of stops at $2.50 marked a change in MCP's reversal process, we opened calls that day under $2.50 where stops were hit and filed out the partial (half) position, the calls were sold the next day as the underlying was up nearly 12%, the equity position was held. As I said, I'm not making the longer term case, I've already done that so we are looking at the leading positive divergence of a 15 min chart above.

Before each of the last two decent price moves there has been a shakeout of stops, the $2.50 level being the bigger and more important, so I may set some price alerts for a break below local support as a possible entry for a new call position.

 MCP breaking under $2.50 last time is the day we entered as stops were hit (calls and filled out the long position), we have been in positive leading territory since on shorter term timing timeframes.

 This was last week's 1-day move of nearly 6% on the 19th from a 5 min chart's leading positive, it never went negative.

Only a shorter intraday 3 min chart went negative (5 min seems to be where we start to see institutional activity, 1-3 min seems to be more intraday trade, perhaps market makers, algos, specialists, HFTs. etc.).

The point being, the 19th's move only had a small negative divegrence on a 3 min chart.

New divergences almost always start on the fastest chart, 1 min and if strong enough, migrate out to longer timeframes, this is showing a new leading positive divegrence and ...

It has started to migrate over to the 2 min chart. I suspect once the 3 min chart goes positive (as the 5 min and above are already leading), we'll be ready for another move up in MCP and I'd think we are getting close to the end of this reversal process and a serious upside move to challenge the long term base.

I'll be setting price alerts under local support in the areas of $2.73, $2.65, $2.63 and probably down to $2.50 and  $2.44 just in case, these are areas where I'd be interested in opening a new call position, if I weren't already fully loaded with an MCP equity long position, I'd consider using any move in those areas (as we have had a head fake before each of the last two moves, the last one not as significant as the first) to start or fill one out.

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