Monday, June 23, 2014

Quick Market Strategy Update

There are a lot of very interesting areas of deterioration, especially since the F_O_M_C, it's certainly not coincidence.

I suspect we have a bounce from today's levels, I'm going to try and remain patient for that, I suspect it will be the usual suspects, HYG, VIX hammering, etc. , but there are so many little changes in character today it could take me all night capturing charts.

One I like a lot is Financials/XLF short, whether it is FAZ long (which would be my preference ) or perhaps the right set up and a put position in XLF, but I'll be looking for either at XLF > $29.93.

Volatility is one that I'm also VERY interested in, but I want to make sure to get the right positioning on that.

As for a bounce from today's levels, I wouldn't say it's so much from divergences as HYG's position, VXX's position, TLT's position, however these pale in comparison to the move in the Black Swan Index, SKEW, someone is VERY worried, the $140+ level has been historically (according to CBOE who puts it out), Crash level readings so this isn't just the protection we have been seeing in Utility outperformance, recent VIX outperformance the last several days, this is something bigger and much more rare.

I'll have some charts up as soon as I decompress, update and find the charts that tell the story the clearest without a lot of unnecessary captures. I definitely have a feeling that I need to get these positions in place and I want to get the best timing, but as I was pointing out with FB and others, there are much, much bigger issues on the same chart if you just look at volume or the number of right shoulders market wide, etc.


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