Friday, June 27, 2014

Possible AAPL Call Set-up

AAPL was one of the stocks I expected to bounce last week, it hasn't done so. There are some divergences that look like it will, but better yet there are some near term divergences that look like AAPL will come down first, offering us a much better call entry and so long as we can confirm short term positives in to a pullback, that would set up a nice call options trade, I wouldn't personally go too much beyond a call, I think you'd need the leverage as I don't see it as a big move that can be captured with an equity long position alone or at least to me it's not worth the risk of putting that much dry powder in to a trade that may not have that significant of a return.

Here's the set up...
 The intraday charts look like they'll pullback, this is where confirming positive divergences in to a pullback is what makes all the difference between AAPL being a great call set up and AAPL simply deteriorating as the deterioration would start on the earliest timeframes such as we see here.


 AAPL 2 min

AAPL 3 min

AAPL 5 min negative, that's usually enough to get an asset to move. I'll set alerts for a move below the range and down to and just under recent support, if positive divergences in to the pullback can be confirmed, we have a nice call set up, if not, then AAPL is simply deteriorating.

 The 15 min chart is one of several that made me thing we'd see a bounce in AAPL last week, it still has a decent positive divegrence so a short term pullback (as long as the charts hold up) should see a bounce to the upside which can be captured with the leverage of calls.

 The 30 min chart has a more recent positive divegrence, the question is will it remain or are we seeing negative deterioration migrating through the faster timeframes as is the case with changes, they start on the fastest timeframes.

However with this 60 min, although it's not huge in duration, but good looking and seems to have a stop-run/head fake already built in, the probabilities favor a bounce.

If interested, I'd set alerts. The call trade could be taken here, but with the intraday charts deteriorating, I'd want to make sure that it's short term in nature and not going to migrate to these longer charts.

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